Game Changer

[malleefarmer]

Short term or sustained rally for a few
months and opportunities for new crop
2013?

[charliep]

The stuff I read says corn and soybeans will be the driver of world grain prices. Oilseeds have been beat to
death but corn remains interesting. Here is an article for Agweb that provides some scenarios as to potential
outcomes. Guess weather and you can forecast prices.

[URL="http://www.agweb.com/article/as_temperatures_heat_up_will_the_corn_crop_shrivel/"]agweb[/URL]

I think there is a expression about living in interesting times.

[charliep]

The factors that give me angst and suggest the bull
run may not last forever is the tie between
economic/financial problems around the world and
demand for agricultural commodities. I note how
negative everyone is on this forum about the world
financial situation and yet the belief that agriculture is
entering the golden years. May be right long term
but my expenience in life is you have to survive the
short term to make it to the long term. Volatility will
be the new world.

[oneoff]

Here's a thought to ponder

In a general discussion with a broker from a promiminant agricultural Western Canadian firm; it was candidantly admitted that a certain competitor was seen by the industry as being on the "side of the farmer"; in that he tended to try to drive prices up.

Apparently that runs somewhat counter to the wishes of the "bigger" half of the buyer/seller equation.

On behalf of myself I wish to thank that grain broker for his efforts to slightly even the playing field.

Apparently its quite a rare position to take.

[cottonpicken]

I've heard "interesting times" is actually a very old
chinese curse,lol.

A 20% move in a month is indeed interesting and a
game changer.

[charliep]

oneoff

Very few here sell directly to final customers so dealing with the supply chain is a necessary evil. All western Canadian prices are based off international values - varies with crop but 50 to 80 % of production is exported. Prices are driven by what happens in world markets. Yes there is the price relationships between Canadian prices and world values (basis if you like) that is impacted by competitition within but there is less variability than with moves in the overall pricing complex.

Developing partnerships with other members of the supply chain you can trust will be critical in the new world as all members deal with price volatility. Picking on wheat, that is all members from farmers to grain handlers to flour mills to bakeries.