CGC and COPA canola numbers

[charliep]

Spending some time these days looking at the canola numbers as we approach the end of the crop year. Canola is different than other crops in that close to 100 % of production enters the commercial delivery system. This compares to cereals where on farm use is a big grey area.

Producer deliveries to end week 47 (June 24) - 14 MMT. Deliveries coming in at a pace of about 200,000 tonnes per week. Exports over this period - 8 MMT. Crush - 6.4 MMT (COPA number less). Disappearance remaining at about 250,000 tonnes/week. Commercial stocks declining slightly.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2011-12/week-semaine-47/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]week 47[/URL]

<a href="http://www.copaonline.net/documents/COPAWEEKLYJUNE272012.pdf">copa</a>

[mcfarms]

Charlie


Not much left out there, Old crop July Del canola off Nov futures at a 61.09 over basis this morning.

[wd9]

Would kinda disagree Mc. Texts from Adm
show specials last hour max and filled.
Canola is out there, but in talking to
others, we want to see $15 . Won't sell
any till i see that 15! 14.91 this
morning, but not 15.

[mcfarms]

Whats left out there must be in "strong" hands then waiting for that over 15 dollar mark. We did take that 61 over basis though , haven't locked the futures yet because I admit I think we can see 15 again as well.
Have a target at 15 for half and am waiting to seeif the |US forecast remains damaging on the rest.

[charliep]

You can work the math to see how tight supplies are.
Total canola supplies - 16 MMT. Deliveries to date -
14 MMT. Assuming current delivery pace, another 1
MMT will be delivered in July. Carryover 1 MMT.

Commercial stocks - about 750,000 tonnes.
Assuming 250,000 tonnes per week of exports/crush
over the last 5 weeks of the crop year and deliveries
of 200,000 tonnes, commercial stocks should be
about 500,000 tonnes. That leaves 500,000 tonnes
on farm or less than 3 % of total supplies. Stocks use
ratio of about 5 % or less than 3 weeks supply.
Normal crusher maintenance shutdowns occur and
exports slow but very tight.

An interesting note. Record production. Record
exports and crush. Record prices or close to it.

The $61 over I assume is the November contract.
Takes care of the July/November inverse. For anyone
unpriced (I realize close to no one), your risk factor is
basis more than futures.

[charliep]

Second paragraph refers to July 31 by the way.