Anyone Selling Canola?

[wd9]

Ok simple question. Charlie and Errol, you
say this is a 'weather' market, however
the corn and soy situation with dry
weather in the US is a very real tragedy.

At what point, and i'm thinking its this
next week, does the weather market become
a reality on the reduced crop in the US?
From what i've been hearing, its a dire
situation.

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

I note when at Viterra on Thursday... my Viterra FBR told me they were ONLY going to accept CWB grain that was headed for the Pool Accounts in the next crop year...2012-13.

NO FLAT PRICED CWB deliveries next crop year... Not sure how many other grain co's are this way... check and find out.

The Viterra offer was over $8.90/bu local NE Alberta August 1 2012 Delivery #1CWRS 13.5.

[silverback]

What kind of deductions off of that Tom?

[charliep]

wd9

We will all have to watch the USDA crop reports
released every Monday. Corn yields in particular are
being lost accepting this was an early seeded crop.
Soybeans - yields being damaged but flowering
period later/indeterminent flower. How much
potential gone? We both will be reading reports out
of the US.

Having said, the markets have been rallying for a
month on weather news. So the question is how
much more gas. The answer will be when
corn/soybean users get their risk positions covered,
the speculative community quits having its way with
the market and farmers start to sell. Look at the
price run up on the charts and then look at history.
things do fix themselves eventually. Will I call a top.
No way. Will it come down hard when bull market
runs out of new information? I would bet on it. Will
this be the beginning of the next down turn in prices
or the foundation for the next rally? Stay tuned. My
only comment is I wouldn't be buying assets/aquiring
debt based on todays prices.

[charliep]

Tom

Interesting comment on Viterra policy. One of the
most interesting events (will only happen once) is
how the gap between old and new crop gets filled
over the next 2 months. Likely to be an early harvest
but there is grain in the bin that has been held for the
open market and just in time shipping customers like
the Japanese Food Agency.

I will say it again. This fall's shipping program off the
west coast will be focused on canola with the
program for mid quality CWRS starting early 2013
when the crop is in the bin and more is known about
quality.

[furrowtickler]

Anyoe selling Canola?? We will be very soon.. The rest of last years and start some pricing new crop. Our crop is in good enough shape now to comfortably 20%. The rest will wait till in the bin unless a late August rally.

[TOM4CWB]

Silver, The $8.98 was Thurs 1 CWRS 13.5 after Aug 1 at the elevator pit in town. Didn't catch ridays prices.

They Want old crop wheat for Aug 2012 shipment.

[charliep]

Another day of higher prices. I would be watching the charts carefully to watch for breaks. As I have said before, markets that rally this quickly scare me. Buyers are in panic mode/getting covered. Having said, they are also adjusting to a tighter supply world. Big rallies are often followed by gaps where buyers have done what they need to or can to manage risk and the speculative community decides to get out/take profits. Have your trailing stops in place or some other tools to tell you when the market has topped.

[ado089]

As much as I like to see a rallying market
I don't like margin calls. I'm almost
ready for a top.

[charliep]

I feel your pain on the margin calls. My toughest request from guys is when to cry uncle on a hedge position. Never know how to respond except if I made that decision, I would almost be guaranteed the market would be at a short term top and make its next leg down.