Seems like 2012 canola crop will be full bloom in next weeks heat wave!

[GreenValley]

Last Friday went to US, Great Falls.
South of Calgary canola is now full
bloom. Irrigation is the most best full
bloom canola. And in Cardston even with
irrigation, they still full bloom. When
enter US and enter to Canada not seen
canola grow there, mostly wheat. Some of
them are burn and West of Great Falls
pasture are burn. In Great Falls very
hot like 40 C. To north of Great Falls
seem more more crops now day as last
time went there more pasture but it
change now day. These land has rocks but
seem they willing to change over cuz
crop price better?

[oneoff]

Charlie: Plants are pretty remarkable . But when Mother Nature goes extreme any life form can be baked, broiled or shrivelled. And hybrid or not, GMO traits or not; its all a matter of degree.

Lets all constrain ourselves a little when we start repeating how corn crops are now so drought tolerant; or how well something seems to take the heat. These comments are sucked up or swallowed so easily by those who don't want market prices to rise, and that seems to usually be because of a market position some industry spokesperson wishes to have publicized.

We'll soon see if there isn't a near wholesale corn production drought disaster in the Mid West.

Lets try to be a little more honest.

[TOM4CWB]

oneoff,

I find Charlie's expressions both 'honest', 'factual', and very helpful to decisions that we all must make in the next couple of months for our marketing to be helpful to the sucess of our farms and communities.

Zero till has helped a great deal in mositure conservation... as has been plant breeding that complements with the more efficient use of that moisture.

Thanks Charlie for the dedication and care you take in careful observations noted on Agriville. This is much appreciated!

Sincerely,
Tom Jackson

[charliep]

I will note that corn has shot up 50 % in a month - a reflection of weather concerns. Soybean prices have gone up by 25 %. Canola by 12 %. Soybean oil by 10 %. So I going to suggest to you that the market is very aware of weather and impact on yields - that is the battle that is being fought. The final story on yields have yet to be told.

Close to home, Alberta has feedlots that need feed/are paying up to almost any price but most every farmers bin is locked shut.

Your decision as a manager is when you chose to pull the trigger on price based on your financial needs and crop potential.

Would encourage everyone to make your decisions on market realities and not your position in the market. This year has a feel a lot like 1988. Rallied hard into the summer and then proceeded to drop like a stone in water into the fall and winter.

[JDGreen]

South of speedy creek to rosetown, saskatoon,
Pa, candle lake. Back down to saskatoon and
across to humboldt. Not until humboldt is there a
crop worth talking about. Canola in general looks
like crap thru the entire area. So far canola just
south of swift current looks best on this tour. Will
be down thru yorkton and into kenossee for
tomorrow. Wish i knew where to find Parsley and
some of her summer treats ;-)

[Burbert]

Hail stones kin dampen this little canolie
party in a hurry though!!!!

[furrowtickler]

Also draw anline from swift to uniy to Maymont to P.A. and thats almost 1/2 Sask in big trouble. No amount of good weather will make that an average crop. Not pointing finger just sayimg reality - go for a realy big drive. West of Unity through central Alberta crops are v - good , at this point.

[oneoff]

It had better not drop likev a stone this time. There will be many casualties.

[SASKFARMER3]

Regina to moose jaw. What happened. It's thin
and patchy, even awesome field is now ok. North
Davidson way to much water. Melville to Canora,
thin and late lots drowned out. Yet today's email
news the crop is doing great with heat, from Bruce
burnet.

[furrowtickler]

Very few "experts" get out beyond their drive to
the office and back home. I read the same thing
about a great canola crop in the making - I just
shook my head..

[ado089]

It's a purdy yellow in thee country right
now, must be a good crop.

[charliep]

Just curious what everyone sees as the crop size. Saying it is small is one thing but how small is another. To highlight again, canola is one crop that we will know the exact size of the crop - story about the 2011 crop will be know in a month.

Can't comment on the crop size but I do follow the export and domestic crush side and I will highlight again, I see no problem in selling a 15 MMT crop with no impact on prices - canola is a follower of the world oilseed and vegetable oil markets.

If I were to make a crack at the supply side. Statcan seeded acreage - 21.3 million acres. From sources I trust - 800,000 to maybe a 1 million not seeded or perhaps in the unharvested portion. Harvested acres in the 20 to 20.5 million acre range. You pick your poison on yields.