Seems like 2012 canola crop will be full bloom in next weeks heat wave!

[charliep]

One of my frustrations is how you guys take in bad news. Realize you are trying to talk the market up but here are some numbers.

If lost 1 miilion tonnes of crop potential (14 MMT versus 15 MMT), the cost to the industry would be $550 million based on $12.50/bu. You run your own price. To make up for that pain, the market place would have to pay you close to $40/tonne more or close to $1/bu. Realizing the world oilseed situaiton, I don't know if the any extra price offsets the pain of lower western Canadian in a competitive world.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie what a crock of shit. We're not trying to
talk down the market. Just tired of the same bs
experts spout that don't know shit about the crop.
It's called the Friday crop report of what real
farmers are seeing not charts in a air conditioned
room. It's reality. Fricking hot and guess what
wind. Lovely for canola and that's coming from
growing the shit since the late sixties.

[charliep]

So what is your number on production? What are your targets on pricing?

The demand side is what is pulling canola prices - not production.

[charliep]

You are right. I should stick with what I know.

Western Canada has the ability to sell a 15 million tonne canola crop for somewhere between $12 and $14/bu (maybe more depending on how things play). A lot of demand is being jammed into the fall as buyers including China manage their supply risk.

Yields will be determined by Mother Nature and are not in anyones control.

[furrowtickler]

Will not hit 13.5 mill tn based on the severity of drowned out areas followed by heat on canola plants that have virtualy no root system b/c they sat dormant for 3 weeks. . Pricing targets are so individual it is near imposible to figure out. All we are saying is that as of today there are too many chain links missing to have a great canola crop accross the praries - imposible. Great in 25% of western Canada, 25% o.k. and 50% in trouble IMO. The stuff in trouble is non reversable I think.

[Hopperbin]

How about we just try to rate our crop better or poorer than last year. I will rate my canola at this point as poorer than last year. My wheat looking pretty awesome I will have to put that at better than my dissappointment last year. I do believe if I would have planted my canola last it would look better this year. Did someone say Humboldt looked good? Going out past my place she is a pretty patchy crop. Lots of cutworm damage in my oppinion.

[SASKFARMER3]

Wheat and durum better than last years shit.
Canola thin but it Cabbaged first time in three
years so yes better. Barley poorer than last year
peas better. Oats same.
But as faras our best crop ever it's a 6 so far.
Heat today hurt but the big thing was wind.
Charlie we all get the demand what were trying to
get you and all the experts to get is it's a average
to below last years yielder. No bin buster so chart
lower yield and stats Canada minus a million
acres and you got the final number now figure out
your demand.

[grrrr]

I predict 15.116806 MT. There. I have a number.

[SASKFARMER3]

Their now we have a number,they can pry it from
our hands. And if south America has issues, well
let's just say 19

[furrowtickler]

Canola, wheat, and peas better than last year for us. So far. Gota go check hail/storm damage from last night. Some wild ones rolled through here.

[bucket]

Can't be a 15mmt crop of canola. Its worse than last year.

And charliep, to be able to tell us the actual 2011 production in august of 2012 with all the reporting that goes on, well, that is incompetence.

Not by you but by the bean counters that can't add.

Crop production can be done on a 2 cent calculator. No one needs to know calculus to do production data.

[charliep]

Canola only gets delivered into the commercial system. I track deliveries as a measure of crop size with July 31 the ultimate judge. On farm inventory is an unknown but an experience in life is you can't have a negative feed, waste and dockage. Simple accounting exercise.