Seems like 2012 canola crop will be full bloom in next weeks heat wave!

[charliep]

I will note that corn has shot up 50 % in a month - a reflection of weather concerns. Soybean prices have gone up by 25 %. Canola by 12 %. Soybean oil by 10 %. So I going to suggest to you that the market is very aware of weather and impact on yields - that is the battle that is being fought. The final story on yields have yet to be told.

Close to home, Alberta has feedlots that need feed/are paying up to almost any price but most every farmers bin is locked shut.

Your decision as a manager is when you chose to pull the trigger on price based on your financial needs and crop potential.

Would encourage everyone to make your decisions on market realities and not your position in the market. This year has a feel a lot like 1988. Rallied hard into the summer and then proceeded to drop like a stone in water into the fall and winter.

[JDGreen]

South of speedy creek to rosetown, saskatoon,
Pa, candle lake. Back down to saskatoon and
across to humboldt. Not until humboldt is there a
crop worth talking about. Canola in general looks
like crap thru the entire area. So far canola just
south of swift current looks best on this tour. Will
be down thru yorkton and into kenossee for
tomorrow. Wish i knew where to find Parsley and
some of her summer treats ;-)

[Burbert]

Hail stones kin dampen this little canolie
party in a hurry though!!!!

[furrowtickler]

Also draw anline from swift to uniy to Maymont to P.A. and thats almost 1/2 Sask in big trouble. No amount of good weather will make that an average crop. Not pointing finger just sayimg reality - go for a realy big drive. West of Unity through central Alberta crops are v - good , at this point.

[oneoff]

It had better not drop likev a stone this time. There will be many casualties.

[SASKFARMER3]

Regina to moose jaw. What happened. It's thin
and patchy, even awesome field is now ok. North
Davidson way to much water. Melville to Canora,
thin and late lots drowned out. Yet today's email
news the crop is doing great with heat, from Bruce
burnet.

[furrowtickler]

Very few "experts" get out beyond their drive to
the office and back home. I read the same thing
about a great canola crop in the making - I just
shook my head..

[ado089]

It's a purdy yellow in thee country right
now, must be a good crop.

[charliep]

Just curious what everyone sees as the crop size. Saying it is small is one thing but how small is another. To highlight again, canola is one crop that we will know the exact size of the crop - story about the 2011 crop will be know in a month.

Can't comment on the crop size but I do follow the export and domestic crush side and I will highlight again, I see no problem in selling a 15 MMT crop with no impact on prices - canola is a follower of the world oilseed and vegetable oil markets.

If I were to make a crack at the supply side. Statcan seeded acreage - 21.3 million acres. From sources I trust - 800,000 to maybe a 1 million not seeded or perhaps in the unharvested portion. Harvested acres in the 20 to 20.5 million acre range. You pick your poison on yields.

[charliep]

One of my frustrations is how you guys take in bad news. Realize you are trying to talk the market up but here are some numbers.

If lost 1 miilion tonnes of crop potential (14 MMT versus 15 MMT), the cost to the industry would be $550 million based on $12.50/bu. You run your own price. To make up for that pain, the market place would have to pay you close to $40/tonne more or close to $1/bu. Realizing the world oilseed situaiton, I don't know if the any extra price offsets the pain of lower western Canadian in a competitive world.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie what a crock of shit. We're not trying to
talk down the market. Just tired of the same bs
experts spout that don't know shit about the crop.
It's called the Friday crop report of what real
farmers are seeing not charts in a air conditioned
room. It's reality. Fricking hot and guess what
wind. Lovely for canola and that's coming from
growing the shit since the late sixties.

[charliep]

So what is your number on production? What are your targets on pricing?

The demand side is what is pulling canola prices - not production.

[charliep]

You are right. I should stick with what I know.

Western Canada has the ability to sell a 15 million tonne canola crop for somewhere between $12 and $14/bu (maybe more depending on how things play). A lot of demand is being jammed into the fall as buyers including China manage their supply risk.

Yields will be determined by Mother Nature and are not in anyones control.

[furrowtickler]

Will not hit 13.5 mill tn based on the severity of drowned out areas followed by heat on canola plants that have virtualy no root system b/c they sat dormant for 3 weeks. . Pricing targets are so individual it is near imposible to figure out. All we are saying is that as of today there are too many chain links missing to have a great canola crop accross the praries - imposible. Great in 25% of western Canada, 25% o.k. and 50% in trouble IMO. The stuff in trouble is non reversable I think.

[Hopperbin]

How about we just try to rate our crop better or poorer than last year. I will rate my canola at this point as poorer than last year. My wheat looking pretty awesome I will have to put that at better than my dissappointment last year. I do believe if I would have planted my canola last it would look better this year. Did someone say Humboldt looked good? Going out past my place she is a pretty patchy crop. Lots of cutworm damage in my oppinion.