ten dollar wheat

[charliep]

Something you like or don't like. My Dad and brother both enjoyed the cattle side of a mixed farm better than crops (maybe sadistic). My Mom and Sister in Law - a differents attitude (home every night, impact on holidays, nuisance, etc.). In my generation, a mixed enterprise operation was what kept a family farm going.

Sorry hedgehog. Way off topic.

[errolanderson]

charlie . . . agree with your wheat
assessment. Is all about corn, not wheat.

believe corn prices are now high enough to
create demand destruction. yes, cows will
leave, before ethanol plants . . . but
this will be a rough period for plant
operators.

[carebear300]

The ethanol plants will close till the price of crude rises over 100 dollars per barrel. Just a dumb old farmers musing tho, have been wrong before but that never stopped me from being interested or making predictions.

[errolanderson]

carebear 300 - believe that subsidies have
dried up and oil companies may be subject
to penalties if ethanol % isn't maintained
in fuel production.

Anyway you cut it . . . U.S. corn demand
is apt to drop over the next year.

[ianben]

Errol
OIl companies pay penalties/tax for reduced
ethanol
Oil companies sell more oil governments gets
more tax consumers cant tell what comes out of the
pump.
I think the economic climate in the world will over
rule the green issues.
Government ministers and companies chairmen
are just one election or share price failure from
oblivion.

When your country is going broke do voters care?

I think the ethanol plants will close and not be
reopened unless they make real economic sense.

[hedgehog]

sorry to be awkward, but if the situation hasnt changed, why is wheat galloping up?
so much for the biggest corn crop ever.
just glad i have very little wheat priced.

[hedgehog]

hey, i just saw some guy on bloomberg standing in a corn field who said that the corn crop was going to be HALVED!

[errolanderson]

hedgehog . . . not to be disrespectful,
but the media licks this stuff up.

maybe they can put a baseball diamond in a
field and make a movie out of it.

all the best . . .

[charliep]

Corn does influence wheat. Gulf corn basis is about $1/bu over futures or $8.20/bu yesterday. That is USD $320/tonne. That puts mid quality wheat in many rations around the world.

USDA did tighten up the world wheat S & D today with slight reductions in Ukraine, Russia. We will all follow government policy from this region of the world given they have represented up to 25 % of world wheat trade.

[oneoff]

Just maybe everyone is basing their guesses on past experiences and previous history.

But, there is a remote possibility that what only used to happen once in twenty year; might now only not happen but once in twenty years.

There are such phenomenon as "tipping points"; and at least they should be recognized as "long shots".

It is at least as foolish to believe that nothing can be more more extreme than what has been experienced in living memory.