ten dollar wheat

[hedgehog]

sorry to be awkward, but if the situation hasnt changed, why is wheat galloping up?
so much for the biggest corn crop ever.
just glad i have very little wheat priced.

[hedgehog]

hey, i just saw some guy on bloomberg standing in a corn field who said that the corn crop was going to be HALVED!

[errolanderson]

hedgehog . . . not to be disrespectful,
but the media licks this stuff up.

maybe they can put a baseball diamond in a
field and make a movie out of it.

all the best . . .

[charliep]

Corn does influence wheat. Gulf corn basis is about $1/bu over futures or $8.20/bu yesterday. That is USD $320/tonne. That puts mid quality wheat in many rations around the world.

USDA did tighten up the world wheat S & D today with slight reductions in Ukraine, Russia. We will all follow government policy from this region of the world given they have represented up to 25 % of world wheat trade.

[oneoff]

Just maybe everyone is basing their guesses on past experiences and previous history.

But, there is a remote possibility that what only used to happen once in twenty year; might now only not happen but once in twenty years.

There are such phenomenon as "tipping points"; and at least they should be recognized as "long shots".

It is at least as foolish to believe that nothing can be more more extreme than what has been experienced in living memory.

[bucket]

charliep

My point is that if wheat is subsituted for corn, the wheat crop gets eaten up quickly.

My views on land prices is that if it becomes a bubble it is not good for anyone involved. And that is where it links into cattle. People are leaving the industry and no one taking over because 2 b trains of flax or canola pays better than 100 head of cows.

100 head requires at least 6 quarters of land and the price of pasture doesn't make it feasible, unless you were given the land.

[furrowtickler]

Also so much for the biggest canola crop ever. Will be a good production number, but mother nature has taken the cream off the top in June. Record number of acres means nothing till harvest is complete - and we aint even close. Just a little lesson for the market/ trading experts.
Why they insist in April/May to call a record crop in laughable. - Try growing the crop with your own money and deal with mother nature with your own hand and deal with it. Your panties would get all bunched up - quickly. lol
Like all insights for sure from most, Charlie - Errol but reality of holding hands with mother nature can bite.

[charliep]

Ultimately the market will decide on price. Neither
Errol or I or you for matter have that much influence.
I do try to show my homework and where my
thoughts come from. You may disagree but fight
with my numbers and logic - not me.

In a market like this, the 10 minutes I spend every
morning are looking at the charts. They tell as much
about market thinking what will happen as anything.
Yesterday was a game changer with a decline after
some pretty positive news. Last night, the markets
were up again. Watch prices over the next few days.

On canola, watch soybean oil. You need higher prices
here to support canola prices regardless of the size of
the crop.

[errolanderson]

bearish reaction to a bullish USDA report
is sign of a top

Malaysian palm oil down sharply overnight
. . . worsening China situation the
reason. This is pressuring canola early
day.

Errol

[errolanderson]

just received ethanol info . . . .

U.S. ethanol production has slowed
considerably this week to the lowest
levels since Sept, 2010. Also, exports are
grinding as well.

The U.S. corn engine (both supply and
demand) is simply getting smaller.

[countryguy]

Market manipulation BS. As long as the population keeps growing so does the demand. People need to eat and need energy. The bastards want grain they are going to have to pay for it this year. Plain and simple.

[cottonpicken]

Imo corn did what it was suppose to do by hitting
its head on the top ofvthe uptrendline and
correcting.

I
However with this massive historic rise it needs to
keep coing higher and and higher on a very
shorttimeline to keep this party going and with the
old high in site we now live in historic times


I wantbto see 7.60 real real,soon.

[charliep]

Sorry Hedgehog. A long ways off wheat.

Below is an interesting article on the US ethanol industry.

[URL="http://www.farmgateblog.com/article/1639/ethanol-analysis-at-middle-age"]Ethanol[/URL]

[charliep]

cottonpicken,

You may be right. Everyone will be watching the charts over the next week. A bit of a bounce back last night. Lower or higher close today.

One of my favorite market expressions. Bull markets have long tails.

[charliep]

Is $7.60 on the December contract? Market has gone into a trading range for about a week. How will it deal with the gap at $6.80?

One of my learning processes is to look at the charts, write down an opinion on price/direction, see how things play out and then review events after the fact with the idea of improving.