USDA July Supply Demand

[charliep]

Report is out. Corn yields dropped to 146 bu/acre versus 166 bu/acre. Carryovers
reduced to 1.2 bln bu. Slashed the demand with feed use down by 10 %. Soybean
yields pulled to 40.5 bu/acre, down from 43.9 in June. Demand side remains
strong. Both yield are not survey based. See the first paragraph of the attached
document. A surprise that USDA was as aggressive in the July estimate. Suspect
markets will get moved higher this morning but a lot of this news is in the market.
The demand side is an issue on corn.

[URL="http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf"]USDA July[/URL]

[errolanderson]

more upside possible, but a lot of this
morning info from usda is already in the
market. watch for a possible pullback very
soon . . . .

[bucket]

A bull and a bear in the same sentence.

Too much partying at the stampede errol?

[bucket]

Hope you got his name because he will lose his house and his new farm and may be looking for a job.

[SASKFARMER3]

Their are two that I rent now that only have
access through our land. Road is gone to get
their. Rent negotiating should be fun. I have 7
years of gps maps on all the land.
The sad part of all this is the investor might end
up broke some day. Checking to see what
companies hold exploration rights for area. No
minerals on titles all in crown.

[bucket]

I once asked a guy from BC that was looking for land in our area why he was willing to pay so much. His reasons were they were not making any more land and it is cheap compared to where he came from.

So I said, if it was worth what you are willing to pay, don't you think I would have bought it before it was on the market.

[bucket]

It might rain or might not. How's that for a weather forecast.

Amazing that people get paid to analyze the markets.

[grrrr]

"watch for a pullback very soon" - Seems to me that I heard that when canola was $12.00/bu.

[charliep]

We all like to fight with each but at the end of the day, the market is always. I find 5 minute charts on a day like today a interesting look. I would also be watching volumes and open interest. More people getting into the market or people taking profits/leaving.

[charliep]

Oops. Let a word out. the market is always right.

[Hopperbin]

Would he not have wanted a rental deal secured before he put out the cash to buy it at 4 times the year ago price? Anyways sask you cannot block anyone from farming that land as there must be a road allowance.

[errolanderson]

Today's close will be interesting. If
grains fail late today . . . lookout
tomorrow. Technically (IMO) these markets
are overblown. To me, it's not if, it's a
matter of when . . . but timing of sell-
offs will be difficult.

[SASKFARMER3]

Road is gone for 1/4 mile, reserve to east me to
south reserve pasture to west and north, basically
he's fu&@ed. I'm not blocking any one.

[TOM4CWB]

errol,

When will it rain?

Many grain users are caught short... we do live in interesting times!!!

[errolanderson]

Tom - even without rain and scrambling
endusers this market rally will exhaust.
But a near-term setback may spark fresh
renewed buying once again . . . if it
doesn't rain next week. This will create
wave action on-the-charts.

Right now . . . markets to me appear to
be hitting that exhaustion stage. Also,
exchanges might hike margin requirements
due to excessive volatility . . . this
can create a market stir.