USDA July Supply Demand

[bucket]

A pullback now would create demand since
no one knows the size of the north
amercan crop. And rationing hasn't
started.

[charliep]

It does not create new demand but it allow end users of the product to step back in the market/manage their price risk. The ebb and flow of the market is buyers will step in to manage their risk. Speculators will maybe drive higher. Eventually the sell side (you guys) hit a price that is too good to be true and you sell. Buyers stop buying. Speculators get out. Prices drop for a while until buyers of physical product step back in the market to cover risk. Specuators buy. Market tops. Prices decline. You can follow on each one of the rallies whether the rally is lower or higher than the previous.

Technical analysis. It has been this way since the beginning of time (or at least as long as I remember. The sign of a normal healthy market.

[ajl]

I fear that we will see more of this.
Agriculture looks relatively good in a
sea of disaster that is or will soon
overtake the rest of the world. Even the
oil patch will slow this fall as the
Canadian price of oil sucks. It is
always a clear signal of end of a move
when people that have no business in a
business show up.

[BTO_farmall]

Error - Sometimes He's Wrong, And Sometimes He's WRONG

[furrowtickler]

I wounder how investing in catails is going to pay off??

[furrowtickler]

Investing in good well drained productive land is one thing , but investing in pot holes, sloughs and willows will not pay dividends, IMO. Ducks are happy though, mayde they can bring up American bird hunters?? Oh yea, they are broke and are wanting hunts for 1/2 price now.... what to do?? Oh yea, mud boogs for oil riggers and miners with quads and side by sides - that will pay the bills at $2000/ac hehehe.

[furrowtickler]

Ohohoh, and then when we get a few years of drought, they can collect grasshoppers, berthas and gophers and sell them to China for delicacies. And when an early frost hitts in August they can sell ice canola wine to the French. Ah, they have it all figured out. This farming business is easy money, great investment in Sask. Oh wait this is not Iowa... never mind.

[furrowtickler]

One thing to keep in mind, some get lucky, some do not but the harsh reality is for every 1 farmer that things click and makes good one or two years there are 5 that do ok, 4 that hang on, and one complete wreck - do the math. And all could be very good farm managers. This all because of location and dealing with mother nature. This is why land in Sask is cheaper than in Alberta, Man, and Ontario - let alone the U.S. - along with shit ins coverage, there is a reason why most local farmers did not start this unrealistic run up in land prices - but some got caught up in it. Just sayin...

[perfecho]

All I can say is I have made much more money in land I have bought and sold, that what I have farmed!

[SASKFARMER3]

Perfecto I have done quite well farming. It's home!
But yes property in Saskatoon and Regina has
done very well for me. My farm it's not forsale.

[Hopperbin]

I agree Sask. if ever the time comes to make a decision of sell or rent, rent it out. The family generations may get to use the profits a very long time.

[SASKFARMER3]

That's always been the plan if kids don't want to
farm. Always told neighbors and relatives some
day you might rent it. ( don't ps me off I have a
good long memory) kids can have income for a
long time. And always have mineral rights on
some.

[furrowtickler]

Agreed, once you sell out it's gone forever 90% of the time

[Hopperbin]

Just signed a lease agreement to BHP this morning on 3 quarters. And to think I purchased 2 of these quarters 8 years ago with 0 value put on the mineral rights. I remember the Lawyer telling me he must make the purchaser aware of the minerals. If I would have no interest the lawyer would likely owned them. Was told 97.5 percent of the minerals in the block they are mining is owned by crown, so lucky to have some or kept them. My father still owns 3 quarters with minerals but was one mile off their border and they did not accept them.

[SASKFARMER3]

Good going.