the brutality of corn

[ASRG]

Maybe Harper, Obama, and Cameron should cap the price.....for the "public good" of course?

[cottonpicken]

What was a dollar worth 70 years ago..mmm..and
wasn't it made of silver..convertible to gold at 20-no
wait 35 to 1 and corn was how much a bushel..and
todays value...let me check my numbers...no wait i
must have..screwed a decimal place or 2...

[oneoff]

Grain prices will go to levels to where they go to.
Wouldn't it e just too bad if farmers actually made some real profits in this price spike event. Just remember that someone will; and I'm pulling for some relatively huge farmers profits for those who happen to have the ohysical product. Do't sell yourself short; just because industry spokespersons are trying to talk things down.

Remember the bumper corn crop that North America was to produce (last spring) and now the same BS about a South American crop that probably hasn't quite been sown yet.

Inject some farmer's instincts in your marketing decisions too.

[highwayman]

Errol I really appreciate your comments here and
all your insight but with all due respect ,with all
your Bearish talk in the last number of months, if
you ever turn bullish that's when I become very
concerned. Keep posting

[Horse]

I dont know about 30 yr ago but 40 yr ago I sold bly $2.50 to the fed mill in Red deer hogs were $.60 that fall and a pen of fat hfrs (140)well not quite fat but they cleaned out the pen .$.44.50 FOB my yard.
Gas was about .18 per gal farm price and my taxes on 3 1/4 was $40.00
To think bly may hit 6 or 7$/bu I would say its about time. What are hogsabout .74 fats $1,08 taxes $1500.00 on same 3 1/4s.
Where did we fall off the wagon and get left so far behind?

[ASRG]

We became "efficient"!

[TOM4CWB]

Errol,

It is important that we 'feed' the market on the way up. The self dicipline of growers is much more rational than the CWB thought possible.

One BIG mistake the Old CWB made... was to mistrust growers and call us all fools... telling us only the CWB 'single desk' knew how to sell our grains.

NOW the CWB will pay a huge price for this past foolishness... 'single desk' head in the sand ... annoyance they staked their future on.

WHAT a shame ExChairs Oberg et.el; the seven ostiches... and past CWB managers were soooo arrogant... to mistrust the very people who were their future... and reck a perfectly good marketing opportunity for decades. $Billions were lost and only proved left wing command and control is a VERY inefficient system.

[blackpowder]

I've never met Errol. For me he's another soundbite or quick read opinion. Like all other 'advisors' never touches on a Prediction.
Nothing on this site should register more than a 1 on our giva shit meter.
Sometimes we all get bitchy. Oh well.

[TOM4CWB]

BP,

Knowing where a person makes a living does give real insight into the advice and motivation behind it.

Anyone care to share what Drew Lerner is saying now?

I note that Drew was really on the right track in the April 12 interview... it is actually almost scary...

[jdepape]

Lots of good comments here but the best one
here in my view is Tom's:

"It is important that we 'feed' the market on the
way up."

The most sound approach to farm "marketing" is
to separate speculating from merchandising.
Using Tom's approach, you can act on market
signals like spreads and basis to dictate the timing
of your cash sales. But you still make sales.

If you're a raging bull, you can still have a solid
marketing plan like Tom's - you simply buy futures
or calls (or sell puts) to speculate.

If you're holding grain in your bin "waiting" for a
good time to sell, don't kid yourself - you're
speculating.

What if you see a top forming and you've turned
bearish? As a speculator with grain in your bin,
do you sell everything in the bin and short
futures? If you only sell some of what's in the bin,
then you're still long. And if you're bearish and
see the market falling, why would you hold any
inventory?

Most guys who speculate with grain in the bin,
only trade from one side of the market. They're
never really short so their trading opportunities
are basically cut in half.

If you truly want to speculate (trade) then develop
a merchandising plan for your physical grain and
stick to it. Then open a trading account to trade.

As for listening to market "advisors". I learned
very early in my 30 years of trading that you
make your own trading decisions - as
cottonpicked has said many, many times, "do your
own due diligence". Take what Errol says,
combine it to what Kostal or Jubinville says, add a
little Drew Lerner and some online information -
and make up your own mind. Errol may have
been wrong but his view is valuable in that it is
clearly part of the market. When you do a
complete market scan, you want to know what's
bullish in the market, what's bearish in the market
and what could change. If you're so bullish you
don't want to listen to countering arguments then
you are setting yourself up for failure.

Does the viability of your farm business really
hinge on your success at "picking the market"?

I put absolutely no stock into anyone's projections.
When you follow someone else's opinion and it's
wrong, you learn nothing from it. When you follow
your own analysis and you're wrong, hopefully
you learn from it.

It doesn't matter who they are, they're going to be
wrong some times.

But then again, you don't have to listen to me
either.

[charliep]

Will let Errol speak for himself but
will note he was among the first to
question the USDA corn yield of 166
but/acre.

How many would have forecast the Midwest
drought on June 1? How many bought calls
on the early June dip to replace stuff
they sold/forward contracted? Why not?

The cattle feeding industry is eating
$200/animal loses both sides of the
border. Things will change on the demand
side.

[rockpile]

A lot of good comments on this thread. But there
are some mad bulls out their who seem to have
broken the fence and have lost any semblance of
self discipline. My view is that we're very near the
plateau, too much speculator money already
propping markets, and the demand function is
going to soften. But there are 2 items that haven't
even been touched yet. 1. Come Aug 1st, have the
grain cos secured ongoing contracted sales, to what
degree and how far out or are they just using
derivatives to fill the elevators once and then see
what happens. 2. In a post CWB world, where are we
sitting with rail capacity and agreements, car
allotment, etc. Will product get shipped in a timely
fashion? I'm speculating on second hand
information but from what I was told is that since
the new management at CPR and Pershing Capital's
involvement grain shipments will receive low
priority until a 25 to 50% increase in tariffs is
achieved to bring revenues in line with the higher
ror stuff. Just more things to worry about. Oh yeah
and last week Agrium reported that the drought in
the US will result in heavier fertilizer usage and
higher prices next week.