Grain Statistics Weekly - Week 51

[charliep]

Interesting numbers in this week's grain statistics weekly. Only one week and a bit to the end of the crop year.

Canola.

Total supplies for the 2011/12 crop year - 16 million tonnes.

Deliverie to end week 51 - 14.9 million tonnes.

Commercial stocks - 660,000. Suspect (may be provent wrong) closer to 500,000 tonnes by July 31. Should be about 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes on farm stored canola same date.

Exports to week 51 - record 8.4 million tonnes.

Crush - record 7 million tonnes. Crush pace remains at 140,000 tonnes per week (maintainence shutdowns not really impacting pace).

Early new crop harvest will keep this beast fed as will already completed export sales (read China).

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/gsw-shg/2011-12/week-semaine-51/gsw-shg-01-eng.htm"]week 51[/URL]

[charliep]

I will be watching the west coast carefully to see what happens in the new world in the wheat and canola battle for shipping capacity. Will be important from your view in determining what moves out of your bins this fall. Canola for sure (no different than normal). Wheat up in the air both for old crop delivered after August 1 and new crop after harvest. From there the balance of high quality milling wheat for specialized markets like Japan and generic wheat including both milling and feed.