Simply said......

[bucket]

Overall, can you guys pinpoint which
impacts yield the most? The shitty
weather at the beginning of the year,
the disease during the middle, or the
weather to finish the crop?

And when do you think the traders
realize this isn't the crop that was
here last year?

From what I hear and what I see on my
farm, I lost more acres after seeding to
moisture than the mistakes my hired
people made, there is more disease and
the weather to finish looks like it may
cut yield. Oh throw on some hail for
good measure.

But luckily the slough acres are coming
back to seed for next year. Always next
year. But those lake days and a string
of pickeral make it worthwhile.

[charliep]

bucket

What is it that you expect from the market? Do you
not believe industry has some pretty good capabilities
of analyzing crop conditions and likely yields.

My job in a past life for a grain company and I made
use of the entire elevator system information that
spanned the whole prairies. UGG published this
information (for the most part doesn't happen today).
Knowing what was likely for sale, planning logistics
and making sales based on this information was a
pretty critical part of having an efficient elevator.
When an elevator companies screws up (happens), the
elevator plugs up and your signal is limited ability to
deliver out of that site.

I highlight we are currently have record prices with
the US corn and soybean crop concerns the driver
plus eastern Europe/wheat. Can we go higher?
Maybe but look at the full picture - not just what is
happening outside your window.

[wmoebis]

I always was told when the elevator plugged up it was the railroads fault or the CWB's fault. WOW the elevators can make mistakes.

Not sure but with the year we have seen from here on, there maybe more money made/lost on the grading bench than in the field.

Diseases, insect and weather factors carry on into sample. We are set up for alot of grading factors with some uneven fields that were flooded and came later increasing the risk of FR, FRGR and mildew issues.

Conditions are ripe for midge, sawfly and we still have lots of ergot spores floating around.

I would hope producers know thier product when they go to market. I like to tell my buyer what I have for sale, not ask them what I have. Or at least subjectively and objectively go over the factors together.

Like Charlie implied "elevators do make mistakes" and not only bringing in wrong commodities at the wrong time.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charley industry doesn't give a rats ass about the
farmer. They want them so far in debt to them that
they have to sell to keep the crushers going.
Broke farmers makes steady supply. When
farmers have cash and don't buy this prices are
high so we have to piss purple to get a crop at all
possible cost.
Follow the money.

[charliep]

Each elevator is a business unit and makes or losses
money. Big difference between turning inventory 3 to
4 times versus 6 to 8 times (at least some here
involved with in land terminals so you will have you
own targets).

Perhaps to the original posting, everyone has to run
their own partial budgets on what to spray. Will leave
price discussions for other threads but there is a
market for 100 % of whatever everyone grows at a
good price (realizing doesn't in some cases make up
for a poor crop based on individual situations). That
applies whether you have extremely good crop (quite
a bit of Alberta) or poor crops. The world is short
supplies - why prices are high.

[charliep]

SK3

Are you a broke farmer? I suspect not (you can argue
differently)? Are your land values for currently owed
assets going up or down? Will the supply chain
determine success or failure on a go forward basis or
will their purchase decisions around fixed assets
(land and machinery) and debt financing have more of
an impact on success or failure 5 years from now?

[bucket]

Charliep

I don't expect much from the industry.
But typically what they know is old
info. You seem defensive for someone
that reads the issues all the posters
here have this growing season, the
industry would be slightly concerned.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie its the same old bs, the grain companies
and suppliers want you to spend till your broke.
Then drop the price because some expert says
their is enough, the broke farmer liquidates
because he has to pay for all his spray, now soon
they will be trying to get us to pre buy chemicals a
year in advance, short supply. It goes on and on.
If mother nature and every thing you've done up
to the end of July a time comes when it's time to
go fishing. You can't make a silk purse out of a
sows ear.
Alberta might have a crop to die for but the rest is
a average,

[wd9]

My perfect plant stand, weed free and
prosaro sprayed disease free perfect wheat
crop didn't stand a chance against hail.
Next year i guess!

[SASKFARMER3]

Was that the Friday night storm or last night wd.

[farmaholic]

Sclerotinia is dessicating my canola crop as I type this. Going to be interesting as when to pull in with the swather, Pretty bad infection so what am I going to save-pepper or wait for the rest to catch up, let the pepper shell and take what's left. F@#K!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Was that the Friday night storm or last night wd.