Is Corn a Mature Bull Market?

[SASKFARMER3]

And Canada ain't that shit hot either for yield.

[charliep]

I try not to play the how much production scenario and instead focus on the demand/consumption side. Consumption will have to be rationed with long term implications (demand distruction). One extra cow slaughtered equals 2 tonnes/years less feed grain consumption over a period of at least 2 years. Backing off the ethanol mandate. Supply response with 100 million US corn acres in 2013?

Won't second guess western Canadian production but we are in a good situation from a replacement side to supplement what won't be provided by the US. We are not that a big a players. The 2 million tonne shortfall in corn production(you tell me bigger SK3 although I would push you on a source) is equal to 50 million tonnes or equal to the entire western Canadian crop production (oilseeds, cereals, pulses).

[charliep]

Number challenged on corn by 3 zeros. Should be 2 billion bushels.

[charliep]

I will do something novel in here and highlight curent prices/charts. All markets seem to have headed into a trading range/holding pattern with todays value at the bottom end of the range. Suspect the support area will hold in the short term but will be interesting to follow long term. The million dollar question in my mind is whether the breakout will be higher or lower. Early harvest both sides of the border will mean the supply side will be sorted out shortly. The question will then be the demand and how buyers sort themselves out in the new price world. Stay tuned for some fun and the unexpected.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie you side with grain companies and I'll
believe the farmer. Yes I agree we will fill the
voids out their with all our production. Problem I
always have is rose colored glasses on Canadian
crop. Just had a chat with a fellow farmer close to
our side. Couldn't believe all the shit happening to
our crops yet same bs it's great.
Oh well if you keep telling yourself things are
great sooner or later you believe it.
Berta are on the war path west and north time to
hit Lorsban, maybe some experts are out crop
checking,

[charliep]

Don't know why you say I side with grain companies. Putting a number to things, what would you suggest western Canadian cereal and oilseed production should be? What prices should farmers be targeting? Are you willing to put your name to your forecasts?

[oneoff]

And I'll go out on a limb. 130 bushels average corn is optimistic. Read the agtalk forums in the US. Note the states and countless counties involved. Read the reported rainfall and accept that there are scarce isolated thunderstorms as a part of mother nature. Look at the drought maps as linked to not long ago. And quit being so super optimistic during widespread US corn producing dire droughts.
Look at the real world. It isn't the super bumper South American crop that anyone can count on. Perhaps its hasn't even been sown; but the market is counting on it coming off.

Just as this years huge US corn crop was going to "replenish the stocks of Ceres Global Ag Corp's Riverland Ag terminals." The notes to the shareholders didn't mention $8.00 corn but maybe it doesn't matter and its all locked in by US farmers counting their chickens before the eggs were even laid.

The point is that there is apparently zero penalty (and possible rewards) for being wrong.

I would suggest getting a feel for the real situation. As a starting point that means aknowledging that plant material can't thrive without timely moisture. When it is as severe as this year; it is a writeoff for those affected farms. In the old days, farmers would have been a man and put a miserably poor crop out of its misery (eg corn yields that were poorer than soybean yields). Perhaps they still do; and perhaps insurance claims have stopped a sensible practice.

I keep getting the feeling that industry spokespersons are deliberately talking prices down. And they will be somewhat successful; and all to their advantage.

[charliep]

Markets are at record prices. Can they go higher? For sure. Does the market care what I think? Not in the least. Will market prices keep going up for ever? You answer that question.

Perhaps my message is to have a plan including targets and actions. Nothing in the bin now but likely will be an early harvest this year. Your production side will be sorted out shortly including what you have to sell. The next question is when you sell it and perhaps even more important how you market it.

[hedgehog]

its a gigantic cover up.
once the corn is cut and sold they will cry out"we were wrong, the yield is only 80 bu" then $8 will become $12 or $16

[LEP]

All it takes is a slight modification to the ethanol mandate to reduce the
demand for corn there and free up corn for the food markets.

My big concern is if they decide to eliminate the ethanol mandate watch the
price of corn drop like a stone.

Soybeans on the other hand ... could take awhile to rectify.