Is Corn a Mature Bull Market?

[Ronski]

But dont DDG's provide around 70% of the feed value of corn? So if they slash 5 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol they only get an extra 1.5 billion bushels available?
Those are the numbers I read on agtalk could be completely wrong but?

[grassfarmer]

On a feed analysis basis DDG may provide 70% the
feed value of corn but you lose 2/3 of the corn in the
ethanol process. Freeing up 5 billion bu would give
you 3.3 billion bu more corn to feed I reckon.

[errolanderson]

Purely an opinion, but would be surprised
if there was a change to the ethanol
mandate prior to the Nov election.

This could turn into one big political
football.

[SASKFARMER3]

Errol I do agree with you on this one. The USA
will not drop the mandate, might change it a little
but not drop it.

[oneoff]

Charlie: answering a question with a another question is one of the oldest tricks in the book. When it doesn't matter if you analysed it right or wrong; it is a more a case of spreading spin and propaganda for the trade.

There are only rare cases of markets getting out of control. Those are the time for potentially more profits than in the previous decade or two.

No one knows that more than the industry; and thats why spokespersons get into the discussion; to offer their expertise, historical "facts" and opinions.

While they swing with the wind; it is interesting to focus on where their center of gravity appears to be.

[hedgehog]

its called being in denial.
much the same as in our property market where folks are in denial about falling values.
they cant believe house prices can fall significantly, just as the grain trade deny that a big step up in prices can happen when mother nature takes control of crops.
in 1816, the year with no summer,like this one, wheat was worth more/ton than the acre that grew it, or the annual wage of the man that ate it.

[oneoff]

Remember those reports of a boatload of Scandanavian oats headed for the USA in time of rising oat prices driven by shortages. Similarly; nothing like musing about freeing up some high price corn by curtailing the ethanol industry.

Can't deny it has an impact; but no one checks to see if the phantom load ever made it. And with only the carbohydrates taken out of corn; there is a substantial feeding worth still left in ethanol byproducts.

I await the day when foodstocks are fully committed to human use. Then; resouces fully exploited; reserves a thing of the past; pushing all growth to maximum possible rates; our "just in time" society will have cut it too thin.

[oneoff]

And that's when a smart plan would have shone.

[errolanderson]

Is this the game of central bank bluff??

Big Ben appears to be just kicking-the-can
down-the-road and the talk from the ECB
this morning was simply rhetoric.

This central bank poker face and inaction
may kick commodity markets possibly as
early as today.

[charliep]

Note that FC Stone came out with a US corn production forecast of 11 bln bu. Old Info Economics number 11.5 bln bu with a new forecast coming out over the next couple of days I think. USDA will release their first survey based estimate on August 10. You may like the results but they are disciplined survey based processes reflecting a point in time.