is it time to buy Nitrogen

[oliver990]

few of us are on edge of purchasing our N supplies. what are the rest thinking?

[LEP]

I think we are going to pull the trigger on some 28-0-0. It is at $385
paid and delivered by Aug 31.

[furrowtickler]

Thinking the same here. Just hate pre-buying before crop is off. Long ways till harvest. Strong storms every 3-4 nights.

[SASKFARMER3]

USA prices are dropping! DAh guys who dont
have a crop dont prebuy fert in usa till
get cash from insurance.

[freewheat]

Not a hope in heck. Still paying for last
years pathetic crop. You boys are in the
position I have been trying to get into
for years. If I could, I would, but I can
not. Surely I am not the only one???

[Daylate]

USA after 1988 drought, went hard into corn in 1989 and were 10% above average on N usage. Not sure if the same will happen but it is possible, because all signs point to US going hard into corn for next year.

We just booked our N for 2013 on July 31. I hate thinking about it this early too, but with $14 canola, N on the same market seems OK.I was getting nervous, not a good reason I know but at least I know my cost now.

On a side note,20% of our canola plants right now looks like cleavers as they mature. Its rotting off at the gound and actually detatching and sitting up top all brown and @#$%ed up. with no seed in it. Oh well,Next year!!!

[Daylate]

Oh and about 20% of our wheat heads have nothing in them, from aster yellow. Around here yields wont be what the stand is showing in both the wheat and canola.

[JDGreen]

bought 66% of expected N usage late july and will spec on the rest. Wont be out much either way by doing this. Does anyone believe phos will drop below 700?? Where can one buy 28-0-0 for 385??

[Choice2U]

Freewheat...you're not alone. I can't cash flow next year's expenses when I haven't even got this year's in the bin. Daylate...did you lock in $14 canola for next year (2013) as per your comment. Whatever this year's N costs end of being should be tagged to 2012/13 pricing. The price today of canola is irrelevant to today's price of fertilizer. What if you buy your N for $600 and the price of canola ends up being $10 by the time you lock in any?

[Daylate]

There's 2 ways to look at it choice, when i can turn a profit in an average year based on what is sold and what is purchased at that point in the market tells me it is the right decision given the current information. When commodities are depressed and canola is $10, maybe it will be available to me to make the decision of $400 N at that specific point in the market if it turns a profit in an average year.
A very wealthy man once told me, sitting in my kitchen 12 years ago its not the buying and selling at 2 different times in the market where you make your margin, its the margin in selling and buying at the same time in the market that makes you the most margin.
He now owns the Canadian cattle industry.
He said the market always over insures it self when trying to profit from buying and selling and leaves you with less of a margin. Example would be wide basis for 2013 crop.
I always thought it was an interesting way of looking at making the decision for turning a profit. He said it a lot cooler though, then asked for directions to his newly purchased auction mart!LOL