Canola

[bucket]

From ICE market comments -

" Canola encountered additional selling pressure due to continued
reports of generally favourable crop conditions in western Canada, reports
of harvesting activity, and strength in the Canadian dollar. The dollar
rallied above parity with the U.S. dollar on Friday, up over three-quarters
of a cent before slipping back. There has been reports of disease and
weather problems in parts of western Canada, but any damage to the crop
does not appear to be significant. "

Now when I look at the pictures from the other thread, I am not sure if any of the traders understand the word "significant".

I have been hearing reports where guys are losing 20 to 40 percent of their crop to disease and then add in what they lost due to flooding/drown out.

I have a hard time understanding where this huge crop is.

Anybody care to hazard a guess.

And could someone also point me to an area where there is lots of flax. My trip the other day made the old spidy senses tingle that someone can't add flax acres properly.

[furrowtickler]

Would have too agree. Add that to the start of bug season,but traders are looking for ways to temper the bull run. This bad news - good news generates great proffits for traders.

[perfecho]

They can make money both up and down....hence it is in traders best interest to keep things on the move....

[SASKFARMER3]

Their is no way in hell that this years
crop is a bumper.
1. NE good crop last year. Pathetic this
year.
2. SE seeded canola and thats it last
year , this year not great.
3. SW bumper last year this year not so.
4. NW average last year bumper this.
5. Cental Bumper last year. AH not so
this year.
MAnitoba bumper last year. Ah not so.
Alberta Bumper last year good average
this year.
So traders are playing down the market.
Cargill head honcho was at farm
yesterday and figured it was going to be
a great crop prov wide. DAH how dark
were your sun glasses on the drive out.

[jensend]

so what should the price of canola be? where's equilibrium given your supply and demand estimates? the traders' opinion is reflected every day in the markets. how wrong are they?

[ado089]

There are alot of good crops out there
but very few great crops. I am surprised
the canola looks as good as it does.

[furrowtickler]

The NW is no longer bumper, better than ave for some, ave for some , and dissapoint for others . My old 1/3 rule.

[SASKFARMER3]

Furrow 1/3 rule. Canola HRS peas.
jensend. 15 is a good place for the crop
to be considering what the hell is out
their. In all my travels this year
havent seen that crop that jumps out at
you and you stop the car to look at and
go "Way to go, thats one hell of a
Canola Crop"
But I tell you I have stopped the car
and Went "What the Hell Happened Here
alot"
Simply its like the markets all winter
telling us that the SA crop was Big, My
farmer friends said WTF is up with that.
Same thing is happening here. USA has a
disaster.

[wd9]

Any excuse to lower the price for now. ITs
not about reality.

[Burbert]

Theys trying ta sell as much as they kin.
Everbody knows, big payments cumin due in
November, gotta sell no matter what the
price is. Same old, same old all the
time, Duhhhha!