Canola Prices Getting pounded this morning!

[SASKFARMER3]

Seems the price of Soy is up and up and
all the rain did over the weekend is
keep what little farmers can harvest
their.
Canola is down hard this morning. Must
be the excellent crop conditions that
are out their in western Canada.
On the 300 km drive I drove yesterday
back to regina their is one crop that
looks very good all along the drive. You
guessed it its HRS, Oh experts the
shitty one you didnt guess is Canola.
Keep killing the retarded sister of Soy.
Probably off to Calgary late this week
will be nice to see all the huge alberta
crops.

[Wheatking]

I am starting to agree with you Sask. Walked all my canola
yesterday looking for bugs, more intense than my usual field
margin walk. To say I was disappointed in how it looked would be
an understatement, lots of sclerotinia, 80% on some of the
unsprayed fields, 40% on the sprayed ones. The biggest thing
though was how thin it was. You should not be able to walk more
than 5 feet across a canola field at this time of year, I was
able to walk across most of the fields with little difficulty.
What I thought would be 45 a couple weeks ago I am now guessing
30. The invigors seem the worst, though that may be just be
chance, though its hard to tell until the combine rolls. We are
probably 2-3 weeks from swathing the canola.

.

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea if a farmer wants to make some real money
this fall, DON'T SELL A B U S H E L of canola!
They will come out in december with how bad the
yields are.

[Ronski]

HRS and CPS prices are good enough to generate needed cashflow. I'm assuming a cash contract signed with Viterra will have better movement than the last couple years? Shouldn't be a hardship to bin the canola.

[newguy]

Canola around here may not look great to some but well above average with way more acres than ever. Big increase of production will come out of our area over last year. Too much rain 3rd week in June last year.

[errolanderson]

SF3 - is $13 to $14/bu canola now already
real money?

[SASKFARMER3]

N o! Not at all

[SASKFARMER3]

Sell your hrs and durum and peas. Bin canola
because the Canadian crop is shit and the USA
will not make a big recovery and for once fu$@
the Bs experts.

[checking]

It appears that we are all going to learn to eat rice. It's the bumper world crop that will ratchet all other grains down. Hope they don't need oil to fry it as left overs. Butter is better!

[charliep]

I think at least some of you indicated you don't
market canola in the fall anyway - you sell in the
winter. Why do you care what canola is worth now? If
you really believe canola is undervalued, Texas hedge
it (buy futures to make up for crop that Mother nature
has taken from you). Better yet - double up on
everything you think you should have produced.

Been away for a week in the Nelson area of BC. What
has changed since I left is higher valued loonie and
lacklustre pricing performance of CBOT soybean oil.
Answer the question about why soybean oil isn't
increasing and you will have a good part of your
answer on canola. You can get long CBT bean oil if
you feel it is under performing.

It is a very interesting market and the fun isn't over
yet.

[rockpile]

Saskfarmer: if you're coming to Calgary and find some
free time, come visit the Grain Academy. I would love
to hear your thoughts and impressions. And if you let
me know when you expect to come, I'll make a trip in
and hopefully meet you in person. And yes, there are
some outstanding crops here!

[charliep]

I would also watch spreads between futures months
and ask why. Big inverses on soybeans and meal.
What do you do with this information?

Also canola logistics separating into three periods.

September to December - Big program to China plus
normal business Japan, Mexico, US, domestic
crushers. Will see a lot of canola move (has priority in
the elevator system). How contracted by
farmers/able to be delivered? May show up in basis as
much as futures.

January to April - Slower canola programs with
traditional customers/smaller amounts China. That is
unless supplies too tight in the fall/grain companies
roll some of their export sales. China oilseed
procurement strategy/South American soybean
prospects will be the external drivers.

May to August - 100 % determined by reality of
Argentine/Brazilian soybean production. Perception
of US 2013 production. Realities of world economies,
ability to pay and impact on key customers including
the North America livestock industry. China policy.

[SASKFARMER3]

Just finished checking the crops in our
area on a Cargil tour.
1. 25 Canola if lucky, Few fields have
heard written off because of Aster
Yellow and Sclerotina. EArly canola.
2. Wheat looks like 65 from road and in
last few days signs of Fusarium and Leaf
hopper have shown up. Yield now will be
lucky to hit 25 to 30.
3. Durum is having the greatest problem,
Leaf hopper damage, plus fusarium in all
fields. Seems one prosario was not
enough. should have done a double
application.
4. Flax in area is now showing signs of
cleavers with damage from the leaf
hoppers and aphids.
5. Barley and water and fusarium damage.
So after attending the day and talking
to my agrologists plus what I am seeing
in the east part of Sask. RAin makes
shit.
All info will be apparent at harvest.
Few timing will do ok most it will be a
shit show.
2013. here we come.

[wd9]

While the 'market' may have gone done,
actual delivered cash canola remains at
least 14.25 a bushel. Markets and reality,
so different.

[Klause]

I will let you know what HRS is yielding
in Ethelbert, MB in 10 days, Saskfarmer.


I bet better than 25... I think you're
being overly dramatic. 37bu HRS, 43bu CPS,
28.5 canola....

For the three prairie provinces.... what
ya think?