Canola Prices Getting pounded this morning!

[rockpile]

Saskfarmer: if you're coming to Calgary and find some
free time, come visit the Grain Academy. I would love
to hear your thoughts and impressions. And if you let
me know when you expect to come, I'll make a trip in
and hopefully meet you in person. And yes, there are
some outstanding crops here!

[charliep]

I would also watch spreads between futures months
and ask why. Big inverses on soybeans and meal.
What do you do with this information?

Also canola logistics separating into three periods.

September to December - Big program to China plus
normal business Japan, Mexico, US, domestic
crushers. Will see a lot of canola move (has priority in
the elevator system). How contracted by
farmers/able to be delivered? May show up in basis as
much as futures.

January to April - Slower canola programs with
traditional customers/smaller amounts China. That is
unless supplies too tight in the fall/grain companies
roll some of their export sales. China oilseed
procurement strategy/South American soybean
prospects will be the external drivers.

May to August - 100 % determined by reality of
Argentine/Brazilian soybean production. Perception
of US 2013 production. Realities of world economies,
ability to pay and impact on key customers including
the North America livestock industry. China policy.

[SASKFARMER3]

Just finished checking the crops in our
area on a Cargil tour.
1. 25 Canola if lucky, Few fields have
heard written off because of Aster
Yellow and Sclerotina. EArly canola.
2. Wheat looks like 65 from road and in
last few days signs of Fusarium and Leaf
hopper have shown up. Yield now will be
lucky to hit 25 to 30.
3. Durum is having the greatest problem,
Leaf hopper damage, plus fusarium in all
fields. Seems one prosario was not
enough. should have done a double
application.
4. Flax in area is now showing signs of
cleavers with damage from the leaf
hoppers and aphids.
5. Barley and water and fusarium damage.
So after attending the day and talking
to my agrologists plus what I am seeing
in the east part of Sask. RAin makes
shit.
All info will be apparent at harvest.
Few timing will do ok most it will be a
shit show.
2013. here we come.

[wd9]

While the 'market' may have gone done,
actual delivered cash canola remains at
least 14.25 a bushel. Markets and reality,
so different.

[Klause]

I will let you know what HRS is yielding
in Ethelbert, MB in 10 days, Saskfarmer.


I bet better than 25... I think you're
being overly dramatic. 37bu HRS, 43bu CPS,
28.5 canola....

For the three prairie provinces.... what
ya think?

[DogPatch]

well Canola oil in the store is getting too expensive for most people to buy. We might even have to buy something cheaper next time.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok all of you are so smart out their then
explain why HRS now is changing color all
the way from kamsack to Moosejaw only its
not a nice golden color its white. And
were not dry!

[ProFarmer]

In southern manitoba Canola looks good from road 50 bushel swath yielding 26 double didget dockage. Winter wheat 80 bushel straw 50 bushel yield good quality though.

[errolanderson]

Reuters poll of analysts suggests
average trade guess of a 127.3 bu/acre
corn yield with production exceeding 11
billion bu.

Soybean ave yield pegged at 37.8 bu/acre
with production at 2.8 billion bu.
Expect higher U.S. soybean crop ratings
next week.

November canola tested a low of
$596.60/MT overnight, about $50/MT off
recent highs.

Malaysian palm oil remains a concern as
its price trend remains down.

[SASKFARMER3]

Profarmer is it just me or do farmers
not walk their fields. A couple of weeks
ago every one in our area I mean every
one was building bins and getting into
harvest mode. Now on the tour yesterday
every one is finally on the same page.
From the Road at 120 km per hour if you
can see aster yellow in canola, stop
because its really not nice when you
stop. HRS is turning white in the area I
described. Fusarium, and Leaf hopper on
HRS. Basically its going to be a
disapointment now the same as Canola.
Yet they Big Dogs keep telling every one
its a HUGE FRICKING CROP!