Canola Prices Getting pounded this morning!

[SASKFARMER3]

14,426,000. THeir charlie is my number Ill
give what I think is out their. Now if Im
wrong it will be alberta has a way better
crop than Im thinking.

[tipsy]

Charliep, I'll a give you my thoughts on my travels thru Sask. in the last ten days or so. There is no doubt there are 20 plus million acres of canola planted. Imo this years crop is not as good as last year. As of today I'm guesing with the larger acres and smaller crop we'll harvest 15.5-16 mmt of production. There are some good crops, but, for what ever reason I have not seen so many fields of poor to very poor canola around the country as this year. Just my .02, anyway's we'll find out shortly..

[charliep]

mbratrud

I agree. Western Canada sold 15.8 million tonnes in 2011/12. No problem repeating in 2012/13. How much canola is on the books for fall sales (export and domestic)? How big a China program? The million dollar question. They are the wild card.

[riders2010]

I think one of the factors being overlooked besides the damage severity from flooding, disease and insects is the 20% or so that is very late seeded and still just blooming, regular frost dates could be critical.

[mbratrud]

I would bet a Steak supper we will
export a record amount of Canola in
October this year. Stab in the Dark
would be 3MMT by Dec. And Crushers well
barring some disaster will be screaming
ahead full blast. I would guess 3MMT of
this crop is already on the books maybe
3.5 50/50 Export/Dom. Others thoughts?

[johnsmith]

Read it and weep boys and girls. South of Winnipeg, east side of the red river, no flood this spring first time in 15yrs. W Wht 90-100, Hrs 70plus in the bin, Canola 30-35 half in bin, too hot and has pepper for the dockage fight, Soy crop is to die for, 40-50 and if a little more rain 50 plus. Estimate of course.

[SASKFARMER3]

John awesome but is 30 to 35 even close to
normal for you guys, I've been in that area and
think not. So big hitting area is lower already.
Some on here don't get canola pepper good
comment.

[SASKFARMER3]

Alternaria also showing up now.

[johnsmith]

On the east side of red 30-35 has been a normal avg. Its been too cold and too wet in the springs for us over the yrs poor starts. Heat this year has taken the extra bus.

[bucket]

JUst curious. How do crop ratings get better at this time of year. The only thing a rain can do in the states is stabilize yield not improve it.

That would be like saying you can improve your yield by adding nitrogen when wheat is headed out.

[johnsmith]

Soybeans are a different animal. They fill from the bottom pod up. The pod is formed with the seed, so the top pods are sacrificed for the bottoms if moisture is short.

[crusher]

Word of caution to the pessimists. Central Alberta farmers are holding their cards close to their chests. Could be some RECORD breaking crops. Not sure how many acres there are here, but the inputs have been piled on and we've had lots of moisture and heat. Time will tell.