Canola Prices Getting pounded this morning!

[SASKFARMER3]

Just finished checking the crops in our
area on a Cargil tour.
1. 25 Canola if lucky, Few fields have
heard written off because of Aster
Yellow and Sclerotina. EArly canola.
2. Wheat looks like 65 from road and in
last few days signs of Fusarium and Leaf
hopper have shown up. Yield now will be
lucky to hit 25 to 30.
3. Durum is having the greatest problem,
Leaf hopper damage, plus fusarium in all
fields. Seems one prosario was not
enough. should have done a double
application.
4. Flax in area is now showing signs of
cleavers with damage from the leaf
hoppers and aphids.
5. Barley and water and fusarium damage.
So after attending the day and talking
to my agrologists plus what I am seeing
in the east part of Sask. RAin makes
shit.
All info will be apparent at harvest.
Few timing will do ok most it will be a
shit show.
2013. here we come.

[wd9]

While the 'market' may have gone done,
actual delivered cash canola remains at
least 14.25 a bushel. Markets and reality,
so different.

[Klause]

I will let you know what HRS is yielding
in Ethelbert, MB in 10 days, Saskfarmer.


I bet better than 25... I think you're
being overly dramatic. 37bu HRS, 43bu CPS,
28.5 canola....

For the three prairie provinces.... what
ya think?

[DogPatch]

well Canola oil in the store is getting too expensive for most people to buy. We might even have to buy something cheaper next time.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok all of you are so smart out their then
explain why HRS now is changing color all
the way from kamsack to Moosejaw only its
not a nice golden color its white. And
were not dry!

[ProFarmer]

In southern manitoba Canola looks good from road 50 bushel swath yielding 26 double didget dockage. Winter wheat 80 bushel straw 50 bushel yield good quality though.

[errolanderson]

Reuters poll of analysts suggests
average trade guess of a 127.3 bu/acre
corn yield with production exceeding 11
billion bu.

Soybean ave yield pegged at 37.8 bu/acre
with production at 2.8 billion bu.
Expect higher U.S. soybean crop ratings
next week.

November canola tested a low of
$596.60/MT overnight, about $50/MT off
recent highs.

Malaysian palm oil remains a concern as
its price trend remains down.

[SASKFARMER3]

Profarmer is it just me or do farmers
not walk their fields. A couple of weeks
ago every one in our area I mean every
one was building bins and getting into
harvest mode. Now on the tour yesterday
every one is finally on the same page.
From the Road at 120 km per hour if you
can see aster yellow in canola, stop
because its really not nice when you
stop. HRS is turning white in the area I
described. Fusarium, and Leaf hopper on
HRS. Basically its going to be a
disapointment now the same as Canola.
Yet they Big Dogs keep telling every one
its a HUGE FRICKING CROP!

[SASKFARMER3]

Rockpile Ill see what my schedule looks
like! Right now Calgary might be changed.

[charliep]

SK3

Just curious. What is your number on expected
Canadian canola production?

20 million acres and 33 bushels per acre is 15 million
tonnes. This is about a 5 year average.

Trim 10 percent off yields and you have af 13.5
million tonne crop. 30 bu/acre ish.

An average is made up of the crops you are talking
about as well as some of the better crops in Alberta.
Not perfect (hail plus other issues) but pretty good
for the most part.

I would watch what has been sold this fall and what
moves. In some sense you should hope the trade has
sold a big canola crop - it has the priority and they
will fight to keep it moving including aggressive basis
levels. Watch what moves/is being asked for by grain
companies.

[mbratrud]

I have certainly seen fields devistated a kinds of disease, it is really hard to quantify. As well as pockets of dryness. Heard of Barley coming off down here in the SE at 45 BPA and 40lbs per bushel. Seeded early, great stand but no rain in July. I think we are headed to at least an average crop, but I agree that there will be some disapointment out there.

Look at it this way SF3, if you are right a healthy set back in prices is not a bad thing. If demand destruction does not occur this thing will eventially come roaring back. With the World economic woes still lingering though it is a mighty big roll of the dice to be overly bullish here.

Interesting times indeed....

[mbratrud]

Charlie, I really think hitting 16MMT and actually will not be a stretch this year. If i was going to pin point I would choose 16.2 MMT as my number. Despite the fact there is going to be some disapointment because of disease and heat blast, trend yield will still be there. But does it really matter if we have 15 or 16 MMT?