Canola Prices Getting pounded this morning!

[crusher]

Plus I'm overjoyed that we had a bounce today. It could have cratered long past the $600 support.

[SASKFARMER3]

Crusher saskatchewans acreage is same as
Alberta plus Manitoba. I'm sticking with my
guess.
Heading to the USA not Calgary family.

[MarshallDillon]

Just west of Winnipeg, a shocker in the making. Oats that should be going 150 is going 90-110, and canola that won't barely fit through the swather hole (no joke) going 27. Heat, aster yellows, wet spring, mini-drought, you pic 'em.

[errolanderson]

crusher . . . you're right, that $600
level is key right now.

If USDA turns out bullish on Friday,
believe we may see a rebound into that
$620 to $625/MT area (IMO). But a
bearish report might break the Nov
contract toward $585/MT which is the old
resistance, but now new support.

In other words, canola may have a $1/bu
potential swing ahead. We'll find out
soon . . .

an opinion for what it's worth.

[bucket]

Government people and others that
believe you can reduce a corn crop by at
least one third and then produce a big
soy crop because of a couple of little
showers are delusional. The corn growing
areas are 9 to 10 inches short on soil
moisture which means next year they will
need a year like our 2010/2011 to grow a
trend yield corn crop.

In Canada the canola crop is smaller
than last year. When the final numbers
come out in a couple of years, this
years canola crop will be 14.5 mmt. Sure
record acreage but 20 percent drown out
and 20 percent loss to disease on what's
left. Doesn't seem like much in July
when the crop is flowering but when the
swathers roll, the light stands and
fluffy swaths will tell the story. I
have seen irrigated canola seeded on may
10 sprayed with bug spray and twice for
disease being swathed on August 6 and
the field across the road is still
green.

Reports on this forum are consistently
the same and that covers a large area of
western Canada. Realistically the crop
in western Canada isn't bigger than
years in any crop. Harvest reports on
the peas are well off expected but you
can't have 20 potholes on a quarter show
up after seeding corner to corner and
think its going to be a bumper. Well
maybe the office people can.

I lowered my expectations long ago, it
keeps me pleasantly surprised but after
doing some preharvest spraying its still
not pretty.

[SASKFARMER3]

MarshD That west of Winterpeg is in the
heart of Manitoba Between portage and
winterpeg?
That i know is not normal for that area.
27?

[MarshallDillon]

That's right, east of Elie. Heard of some canola going 40, and 27 today. My oats is 90 by volume, but heavy, so maybe 110. Maybe 105, should be 150. Wheat is the star, 65 bu. everywhere. You know what, I am starting to think, "screw the oats" next year. Canola, beans, winter wheat, spring wheat, retirement.