Thoughts on today

[silverback]

Can you guys that pay more attention than I do these days, tell me what happened to go from down markets this morning, to soybeans up 23 1/2 cents at the close? Corn up 14 1/2? Wheat 10? Seems like just as all these analysts turn bearish the market goes again. I thought the weather was turning for the better in the US and stabilized their yields? Big crops in the southern cdn prairies driving down feed prices?

[charliep]

I don't think anyone has turned bearish. Analysts have very little impact on the market. What does have impact is active participants in the market. Picking on corn, for whatevery reason, sellers seem willing to pull the trigger at $8.16/bu (resistance) and buyers willing to step up to the plate in the range of $7.70 to $7.90/bu. That is the trading that market has settled into. The next question is which way it breaks out. I agree with other comments here that the yield side has been determined on corn - now an issue of how 2 to 3 bln bu of corn is rationed out of the supply demand.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZCZ12"]december corn chart[/URL]

Soybeans have a more indeterminant flowering period. Suspect the time for this is passing so only yield potential is plumping up the kernels with extra moisture. Again, moving beyond supply and seeing how the market deals with smaller supplies. Soybeans have been less impacted by drought (sources I read) but tighter going into the summer/a year from now even before the drought. China?

My point watch the technicals. Most charts are in a trading range but look for your self.

Production side will become more apparent/less impact and be replaced by the rationing process that needs to occur.

For those of you who are getting ulcers, a market expression I have heard is "Markets are like buses. If you miss the first one (bus/rally), there is likely to be another one along in a period of time". You need to have done your homework and confident of your market opinion. Otherwise, nothing wrong with selling into rallies not because you know but because you don't. Reward rallies with sales. Or using minimum price contracts/options on futures.

[mcfarms]

Friday morning Wadse report is where the eyes are focused right now I believe.

[TOM4CWB]

Silver,

I see DTN is now quoting Canadian prices for wheat:

Cliff Jamieson Canadian Grains Analyst

Wed Aug 8, 2012 03:50 PM CDT

"CASH MARKETS

Vancouver #1 CWRS 13% pro is indicated at $350.33/mt for October and $351.78/mt for December, basis Vancouver.

Thunder Bay #1 CWAD 13% pro is indicated at $337.57/mt for October and $339.00/mt for December, basis Thunder Bay.

Vancouver Two-Row Malting Barley is indicated at $304/mt for October basis Vancouver, while December is trading at $304/mt basis Vancouver.

Cash grain markets in Lethbridge are trading at $250/mt for barley while feed wheat is trading at $285/mt.

Cash canola in Vancouver is trading at $643.10/mt or $40 over the November future.

(AG)

© Copyright 2012 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved."

[charliep]

Strong market today with prices back at the top end of the trading ranges. Will be an interesting day tomorrow after the WASDE report. I don't expect surprises in the report (lots of private estimates) but only a guess. Continue higher through resistance or a move to the support area again (buy the rumor/sell the fact)? Stay tuned.