Bullish thoughts video for USDA report tomorrow

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf"]August 2012[/URL]

[mcfarms]

Charlie

Is it a bad thing when you wake up like a kid on Christmas before a USDA report without an alarm clock ?
I think I need to take that pill I was told to take a month or so ago watching these markets gyrate lately I think that pill will be gravol.
Alberta is sitting on a pretty dang nice crop and it is truley nerve racking to be watching this market bounce around at these highs when trying to hold to a rule of not selling more than 10 percent of any one crop until it is safe in the bin and grades are known.
Wheat may trade lower around this report though as its numbers are a little bearish though corn will support its use in the lower grades for feed replacement.

[errolanderson]

mcfarms . . . . took a look at USDA

corn . . . neutral. ending stocks right
in-line. big cut in production and big
cut in demand.

soybeans . . . neutral ending stocks
right in-line. big cut in production and
big cut in demand.

wheat . . . slightly bearish.

expect the unexpected mc

[mcfarms]

Grrr Mr. Bear Grrrr
You do know the usda will be counting the already harvested corn in this report that will pad the numbers, I have to admit the ethanol thing worries me but with the election and Obamas support for ethanol would be surprised to see a big change there until after the vote.

[mcfarms]

Though sh*& errr stuff do happen....
no matter what prices seem well supported now at attractive levels at least until focus changes to SA production. So lets "Get er done"

[errolanderson]

mcfarms . . . not here to p . . you
off.

economics of U.S. corn at these price
levels do not work . . . no if, buts or
maybe's

yes, ethanol mandate may be questioned
(a wildcard).

us soybean crop rating next week likely
steady to up.

spec buying may have blown its wad . . .
a reversal could be ugly when the funds
decide to bolt (possibly within a few
days).

[countryguy]

How convenient made up demand figures can be when attempting to distort markets.

[charliep]

I would more worried about the cattle side. Cow
numbers driven down by pasture/forage costs and a
lot of pain in the feeding side. It will take a long time
for these numbers to re-build - simple biology. I
would also highlight these numbers will drive
production decisions around the world starting with
South America. Will Mother nature cooperate? Good
question.

I would also watch the discussion around food
inflation and how governments respond. This will be
in conjunction with the activities that Europe and the
US in amongst others are trying to keep their
economies afloat.

There will be a time to sell. Markets always over re-
act. I would be carefull with my comments similar to
Marie Antoinette (Let Them Eat Cake). You know
what happened to her.

[charliep]

countryguy - you do realize we can't have negative
carryovers. The process now is to recognize there is
not enough corn/soybeans to meet the needs of all
traditional customers and to determine who steps
away from the market. The reason we have $8/bu
corn and $17/bu soybeans. USDA is simply a point in
time estimate of how this may happen. History will
determine reality.

[LWeber]

The projected wheat range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month

The 2012/13 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel projected in July.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up $2.00 on both ends. Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends

US Corn S/u ratio is 5.8%

US Beans s/u ratio is 4.2%

US Wheat s/u ratio is 28%

Investors who had fled agricultural commodity funds for more than a year rushed back in droves last month as the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century caused prices to surge, data from fund tracker Lipper showed on Friday. Exchange-traded funds and other security products that track agriculture-focused futures or indexes re-corded an inflow of <b>just below $110 million in July, the highest since March 2011,<b> according to the data.