Bullish thoughts video for USDA report tomorrow

[burnt]

It seems that when we producers think that there is no limit to how high prices can go, that is usually when things turn around.

I think there could still be some upside, but I did not want to go into this report without having some new-crop pricing in place. So yesterday I sold 1/3 of our "projected" corn yield and almost 1/2 of our soys. $7.57 and $15.51 (plus premiums) respectively.

If that is the low of our marketing for the 2012 crop, I will be as happy as a pig in poop.

[cottonpicken]

Beans are going to the moon.

[dmlfarmer]

But its (Cargill) CEO appeared on television last week to voice support for easing the U.S. government's mandate to produce rising amounts of ethanol, saying the huge diversion of corn to making the fuel was causing corn prices to soar and squeezing livestock farmers -- including Cargill, a big beef producer.

(full story: http://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/news/cargill-posts-worst-quarter-since-1991/1001611019/6u8y64sWrl10wMw4q/?link_source=aypr_ABEX&AF=&utm_source=ABEX&utm_med ium=email&utm_campaign=ABEX-EN08102012&link_targ=DailyNews )

There are more non farmers who are voters than farmers in the US so I question why a government would wait until after the election to curb food inflation due to high commodity prices!

[cottonpicken]

**** i should just keep my mouth shut.

Does anybody even follow the price of ethanol and
the break even price conversion for corn?

Does anybody even realize the mandate doesn't mean
anything now?

Does anybody realize 110 million of inflows is non
sense number when compared to total contract
holdings of funds?

Does anybody realize that any analyst screaming sell
in the face of overwhelming rising open interest
maybe doesn't see the trees because of the forest.

Does anybody compare price on an inflation adjusted
basis and say something like"holy **** are beans
cheap"?

[charliep]

The sources I follow suggest no changes to US ethanol policy until after the election and then after a consultation period. Nothing will happen fast. The risk is changes will happen after US farmers plant a 100 million acre 2013 corn crop.

I find watching the market on a day like today somewhat amazing. Corn popped through resistance but hasn't managed to stay above (mid day). Soybeans are higher but still in the trading range.

[LWeber]

Does anybody realize 110 million of inflows is non
sense number when compared to total contract
holdings of funds?

Funds hold 29.12 MMT of bean contracts or close to 17 billion dollars at $16.50/bu

Yes ... but they sure as fk arent going to dump <b> NOW <b> ....I only added it because someone suggested they could dump "in a few days".

The most bullish fn report for beans I have ever seen and it is 7 months before South American harvest. Now add the U.S. crop is probably overstated by 2-3 bushels per acre.

[SADIE]

In our area south of Saskatoon in the Lake Diefenbaker area the same thing.

Seeing a cow-herd is fewer and farther between.

As predicted.

[charliep]

The margin chart cottonpicken mentioned. You may be referring to another source.

[URL="http://www.card.iastate.edu/research/bio/tools/proj_eth_gm.aspx"]August 2[/URL]

Will note they refer to operating. Not sure whether fixed costs are included.

[jamesb]

In regards to the ethanol thing, a smart guy that I know was talking about more oil prices. If oil holds higher then the ethanol plants can stay in the black but if oil should drop much then the plants will be mothballed because they can't make money where corn is at if oil takes much of a drop. As farmers we want grain prices as high as we can get but it will be interesting in regards to demand destruction for the livestock industry need for feed grains. Bottom line for me is that last winter almost all market gurus were using what information was infront of them and suggesting over supply for the market. The thing now is it looks to me that we now are going to have a couple of good price years to rebuild stocks because the US crop is so very short.

[charliep]

Just curious on all market bulls comments on soybean oil. Has been the laggard to date although some life this morning (one day does not a market make). Do you see the oil side participating in a major way in the soybean rally or 100 % meal driven?