Bullish thoughts video for USDA report tomorrow

[charliep]

What was new in the report that hadn't been
anticipated by the market? Lots of other production
surveys by the private sector prior to the USDA which
highlighted similar estimates. The process now is the
one of cutting consumption to match the availability
of crop. That process is going to take some time.

Your challenge is to have a process that follows the
market and picks critical selling points/prices with
the discipline to act. Will be curious how this all
unfolds. A high price is only a high price when sell
and deposit the money.

[charliep]

cottonpicken

Just curious on your source of information on ethanol
plant profitability. I note what I posted was a
theoretical ethanol margin based on futures and
some assumptions. I nothing to do with the
profitability of the industry or an individual plant.
Simply an index of relative profitability.

What I am hearing is that individual older and less
efficient plans are getting shutdown. I suspect newer
plants with some of debt or poorly managed plants
starting or plant managers who haven't managed
their price risk are also under risk.

I would spend some time looking at the consumption
side of the USDA report and how they see the
rationing process occurring. This is the question at
this point. Larry highlighted the carryover stocks but
they are a derived number based on how USDA sees
consumption unfolding.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, USDA knocked 10 % out of US
ethanol use (4.5 bln bu versus 4.9 in June and 5 bln
bu over the previous couple of years. Make the
balance sheet, higher ethanol use would mean less
feed consumption, exports or more imports.
Carryover forecasts are at rock bottom. All above is
2012/13 S&D information.

[wd9]

Hey Larry, do you pay extra for posts in
bold?

[wd9]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJii_QNfJ_U

Not a drought everywhere.

[ASRG]

So ALLFARMER, I have to ask.....how can anyone sell round hay bales for $15? Why would anyone bother growing it?
Alberta Ag says yield for alphalfa/brome is about 3 tons in the best zones? If the bales are 1300 lbs we are not talking more than a little over 1 cent a pound? How does anyone run machinery over that land at that price.......let alone any fertilizer or seeding costs...let alone any kind of return on investment?

[kato]

To buy 15 dollar hay here, it would have to be several years old, black, rained on many times, and likely mouldy.

[ALLFARMER]

Richie Bros auction in Grande Prairie. No one
new they were being sold and in that area
absolutely no one needs hay. Deals can be had if
you go to enough auction sales

[ALLFARMER]

Bad spelling in previous post...'knew' they were
being sold. Went on RBI website / auction results,
couldn't find the bales but found a Schuler 220
silage wagon that looked near new that sold for
$500 now that's cheap.

[errolanderson]

newguy . . . the reason markets didn't
jump and in fact drop (corn and wheat)
is exactly what Charlie stated . . . the
market has already built in the drought.

Funds might ram one more time, but if
margin rates are hiked or if credit
markets suddenly get squeesed or the
global recession/depression worsens or
ongoing BS about central bank stimulus
is finally called a bluff . . . mark me
words . . . there will be one hell of a
sell-off.

The clock is ticking . . . . .