MB early canola yields low

[buzz]

Early canola yields low in Manitoba
BRANDON, Man. — Early reports suggest canola yields could be below average in Manitoba this year. In its weekly crop report, Manitoba Agriculture noted that early canola yields were 20 to 35 bushels per acre, but reports from a grain terminal northwest of Winnipeg indicated that many growers were seeing yields closer to 20 bu. per acre. However, Anastasia Kubinec, an oilseed specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, said yields from the earliest seeded crops might not reflect the bigger picture in the province. “Some of those early planted fields that they’re getting yields off now, they were exposed to heavy flea beetle pressure, root rot, potential wind damage and went through that cold spell (early in the spring),” Kubinec said. “The (plants) may have used some of their energy to get through that (stress).”

[agstar77]

Yeah, the later crops were exposed to 35 deg heat , sclerotinia and aster yellow. Seeds are small and pods are few. Some are trying to straight combine canola now, but wind and rain are costing yield.

[SASKFARMER3]

As I said 2 weeks ago this crop is a shit show, yet
some still try to brag it up. Nice Manitoba ag.

[charliep]

Should let the discussion go but kinda feel a sense of deja vu from last year when the same exactly the same conversation occurred. Western Canada ended up harvesting a 14.2 million tonne crop that I think is under estimated by 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes (will see in the upcoming stocks report).

As long as western Canadian canola production is in the 14 to 16 million tonne area, I don't think it really matters what production is.

If I wanted to be an optimist about prices, I would hope the trade has over sold what farmers are able/willing to deliver this fall and this feedback into the futures market and tighter basis levels. Demand lead rallies are far better and more sustainable than production driven ones. What you are communicating to customers is that western Canada has nothing for slae (comlete disaster) so take your business elsewhere.

I will highlight again. The trade and crushers all have big fall programs. A lot of canola is going to move over the next 5 months. Supplies will tighten up this next winter and spring (depending on crop size). If Mother nature cooperates, Argentina and Brazil farmers will respond to $16/bu plus soybean prices.

[furrowtickler]

Charlie you are right on about south American soyabeans. $16 beans will be put in everywhere with fert prices.

[Braveheart]

Grain co's are already narrowing basis levels in southern MB. Richardsons are moving contracts up. They will take any contracted conventional canola at least out to Nov delivery contracts. Huge canola programs. There's even talk of earlier than booked windows for Nexera.

This big canola programming could displace space and movement for early contracted wheat. We sold (wheat) into the recent rising market, Aug. delivery, supposedly to a sale. But I'm not so sure about the sale part now as our delivery window keeps getting set back.

One merchant I spoke with is trying to convince farmers to sell canola now and spec with their wheat. Usually when I hear that it's time to start looking for the reasons to do the opposite.

On our farm our marketing plan was made for the right reasons at the time. We'll have to have good reasons to deviate.

[MarshallDillon]

Yields are certainly dissapointing in the Starbuck area, west of Winnipeg. 15 to 27 bushels is common. Doesn't matter, though. All that prairie dog dirt in Sask. is going to produce big because it is raining there again. This too shall pass.

[SASKFARMER3]

Marsh not all Sask is good actually Sask
Canola will be average to below.
Now Charley you seem to think us (stupid
farmers) are crying wolf by your
comments.
My point is you and a few keep saying
BIG BIG BIG. Out of your window in
Alberta. Good get out of the office and
see. Few more hail storms around Alberta
and BIG is none.
Farmers are sick and tired of BS reports
in Canada that over state whats
happening. Never a report in Canada that
says their is major problems in canola
due to Aster yellows high moisture etc.
Just demand is their if we grow it. Well
yes if we grow it but Im saying I can do
every thing money can buy and guess what
Mother nature wins in the end. Frick
even the big expert Broad ass farms has
a shit show and his late needs till mid Sept to make seed.
Some are swathing way to early with
diseased fields. Take off the Rose
glasses and look. Production will be
like I said in 14.6 with all these
fricking acres we seeded. So basically
it wasn't a great crop for all the
acreage we put in the ground.

[RedRiverMB]

Harvested Canola south of Winnipeg. Was planted
April 25th, no flea beetle, no frost, no wind, no
flood issues, it was the best canola crop I had ever
seen coming. it was about two feet tall before bolt
and flowered heavy for the first week then the heat
wave hit and aster yellow. It flowered for 17 days,
thats all. The yield is roughly 35 and a swath for 60,
most crops are doing 20 to 35 around here.
Canola has been the disappointment crop for us.
Cereals have been unbelievably high in the yields.
Beans look good now with rain, but we will see if
that translates into pods.

[dave4441]

Really, gotta side with Charlie on this one SF3, you say the same thing yr after yr. Will this year be any different? I have seen some pretty amazing canola crops this year, especially in the more important canola region of SW and West Central Sask.

All kidding aside, what is the average canola crop bu/ac that made the 14.2 million crop last year????

[SASKFARMER3]

Davey boy good to here from you in the land of
milk and honey. Simply if manitoba lower and
were lower in the east part of sask and Alberta
keeps getting shitty weather,my 14.6 is close I
was wrong just one year. What ps me off is in
Canada it's all good in farming even if it's a wreck.
Some never leave their office yet tell all what's in
my field and yours.
Good luck harvesting.

[sawfly]

i have not been to far and i know form unity west things are better.
every acre here should have been wheat.

i think 5-8 % of canola is close to zero
yield, flooded drowned out. whole qtr.s in some cases. 2 qtr.s within 5 miles of my yard.
another 40-50 % is in the 15-25 bu. range. N leeched out and or thin weedy stands from flea beetle and cut worm.
some aster yellow, and everyone has lost
some yield to army worms .

the other 40-45% in the 25- 40 range.
i do not think the best crops are as good as last year. where we averaged about 43.
at least in this neighborhood i think we will do good to average 30.
but my gut says, we won't make it.

the peas are a much sadder story
and wheat looks awesome

[perfecho]

Come on.....it is “ their” job to buy for a cheap as possible....hence big yields, hurry up an sell farmers!
For those that believe production is a problem...buy and hold.....
There are a lot of speculators that now want/need to make money...so prices have to move one way or another. Much of it is a game and really doesn't add value in the real world....but it’s the world we made!

[dave4441]

I thought you would like that SF3. It wasn't just last year either.

Crop production is about averages across the prairies. It takes fields that have zero due to hail/drought/disease and fields that are 50 or 60 bu/ac and somewhere in the middle is the average. How many millions of dollars are you long canola SF3? Probaly impacts your outlook. I know it does mine.