Anyone thinking of just selling all their canola this fall off the combine?

[Hopperbin]

The thought is crossing my mind, even though my crop is less than ideal and I believe others is going to be better than typ. For sure will not sell anything until I get the combine in there cause the yield is really going to be a wild card. My 25 est. could be 15 in fact. Just wondering what others are thinking, maybe just sell her. Canola not the ex. Basis could be my deciding factor not to sell in my opinion.

[groundspeed]

Why not if prices stay at the levels they are cant go wrong and dont have to babysit canola this winter.

[wakopa]

kinda with groundspeed ,im mulling it over
right now while combining canola.yield
okay 4 this year.

[HappyFarmer]

I don't think that is a bad idea at all. We are
thinking of selling all our own and purchasing call
option on the grain that you deliver, say out into
march or may. Won't be cheap to buy but are
probably going to have some really wild markets
this winter and could really cash in.

Its nice to hear somebody on here who realizes
the risks of carrying canola all winter, rather than
everyone on here always saying to not sell a
bushel so prices go higher.

[HappyFarmer]

I don't think that is a bad idea at all. We are
thinking of selling all our own and purchasing call
option on the grain that you deliver, say out into
march or may. Won't be cheap to buy but are
probably going to have some really wild markets
this winter and could really cash in.

Its nice to hear somebody on here who realizes
the risks of carrying canola all winter, rather than
everyone on here always saying to not sell a
bushel so prices go higher.

[SASKFARMER3]

Not a chance, go right ahead and sell. This crop is
not their nd the USA isn't plus SA it's a long time
till march

[farming101]

I wonder if some of the canola crop might not store very well. Uneven maturity because of disease and army worms. Babysitting touchy canola does cost something.

[charliep]

An interesting day in the marketa with corn and soybeans challenging resistance.

Will leave the discussion about how much to sell to others. Lots of things go into this decision.

I look at the need/disappearance side.

If we assume 7 plus million tonnes of domestic crush again, that means 600,000 tonnes/month or 3 MMT of crush in the first 5 months of the crop year.

Traditional customers (Japan, US and Mexico) will buy somewhere around 4 million tonnes of Canadian canola. Around 350,000 tonnes per month or 1.75 MMT ish by August to December.

Assuming 15 MMT of western Canadian canola available for sale (just a number - you fight about how much will be produced), that leaves another 3.5 to 4 MMT to export to China, etc.

How much of the 3.5 to 4 MMT is sold and shipped this fall is a big question.

[crusher]

If Mar and July soyoil is at par, why is canola inverted $20/tonne? Beans are inverted but canola price has been tracking soyoil a little closer. Thoughts?

[Hopperbin]

shucks I think I got to the 15-20 bushel stuff, major cleaver infestation on these few and aster yellows looks 30 percent plus, I must have the most aster yellows of all the nieghbours, what did I do wrong? Should I complain more?. My sprayer operator thinks next fields are better. Just barely keeping up here running the swather 24 hours a day, ripe stuff and green stuff. True the crop could be harder than typical to store. Immagine delivering it all. Then going on a month camping surfing trip to Kauai. Everest in spring. And And.

[HappyFarmer]

I like your thought process Hopper.

Drinking margaritas on the beach sound a whole lot better than checking bins all winter.

[Partners]

The way this harvest is looking we should all be sitting on a beach and drinking, next winter to try and forget 2012...Canola looks like a crop failure, Bly is 44 lbs...Wht looks VG but who knows what that will turn out like..Super High humidity means short days on the combine...

[charliep]

I would look at the soymeal inverse and impact on crush values.

March July canola - $20/tonne.

March July soyoil - basically the same.

March July soymeal - $50//ton or 2.5 cents/lb.


A tonne of canola has about 1300 pounds of meal (soybean meal value - $32.50). Canola meal has benefits in terms of by-pass protein in dairy rations (someone else will have to explain) but has less energy/protein than soybean meal. I adjust by a factor of 70 %. The reduction in value would be about $20/tonne as reflected in the market.

Just curious if the deferred contracts for a February canola deliver versus June reflect the inverse or whether adjustments in basis pay carry on the cash side? The company site I look at reflects the inverse in cash prices.

[Rareearth]

Yes been thinking about selling. Basis is
narrowing, what is the highest historic positive
basis level? Corn in the USA this year had very
high positive basis, can't put a number to in in
dollars bushel right now, but it seems canola
should be in a similar supply shortage this year
and possibly require the same positive basis?

[wakopa]

-20dollar basis train coming in 2 weeks ,i
can haul in and not sell till march, no
checking bins , not big bu. im a small
farmer.