Pro Farmer Yield Results

[errolanderson]

Here's a snapshot of the Pro Farmer tour
yield results released Friday aft.

Corn: Ave yield 120.4 bu/acre
Total production: 10.48 billion bu

Soybeans: Ave yield 34.8 bu/acre
Total production: 2.6 billion bu

Opinion for what it's worth . . . .
Corn: Upward momentum appears waning.
Suspect possible sell-down possibly
later this week.
Soybeans: Exports are still too high.
Price rationing still needed to slow
demand?

Wheat will follow corn price direction
(IMO)

Errol

[charliep]

CBT soybean oil seems to have found some legs last
week and pushed itself through a pretty well
established resistance area. Good to see as vegetable
oil has been the weaker of the two partners (other
being meal). Obviously a plus for canola (41 % oil
content and 2/3 of its crush value).

Would post the Farms.com chart but not always
available.

[charliep]

Realizing a board crush reflecting futures and not a cash crush reflecting actual vegoil and meal values,
canola is looking good on product value versus seed cost.

[URL="http://www.copaonline.ca/documents/COPAWEEKLYAUGUST152012.pdf"][/URL]

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.copaonline.ca/documents/COPAWEEKLYAUGUST152012.pdf"]COPA August 15[/URL]

[errolanderson]

Charlie . . . corn is struggling right
now. Some American analysts now suggest
that the top is already in and Sept may
see follow-through weakness. To me, this
will impact the oilseed complex as well.
Still view corn as the lead grain in
North America.

Interesting to note that the week after
Pro Farmer tour, prices typically start
to drop.

Also, corn rallies of the past of seen
about a 20% drop after their August
highs. This may be more to do with the
psychology of the market.

[errolanderson]

Another question is ask is; should corn
drop, how will this impact our local
barley market? There appears to be some
wonderful deferred delivery contracts
available for Dec to Mar into southern
Alberta's feedlot alley.

[Wheatking]

I would guess that they are close on the
yield but the big question will be how
much was chopped as silage, or even worked
down. Not sure if they accounted at all
for this in the last report. Doubt it is
anywhere close to 95 million acres or
whatever was reported in the spring.

[charliep]

Wheatking

I don't think the issue is around the supply side on corn any more. The issue is what it will take to ration demand and being blunt, how much North America has to reduce the livestock herd Mentioned before but will highlight again - also need to watch the transportation system as the drought inpacts things like the Mississippi River.

I agree current new crop barley prices are a good place to start selling but all is not bearish. Lots of comments on canola but will be curious on actual western Canada barley yields (9.5 MMT all Canada is a relatively big number). Having said, the new dynamics about direct export price signals from both feed and malt barley market will impact the domestic market. A source of export information I have indicates Japan has bought feed barley (Oct/Nov) in the $310 to $315/tonne range which works out in the $230/tonne range west/central Saskatchewan ($5/bu). Push corn futures mcuh over $8/bu and all of a sudden feed barley starts to the USA on a freight spread basis (California dairy market plus). Winter wheat unit trains have already left Manitoba destined for Texas feed sector.

Lots of strange things will happen in the feed market (has to - not enough supplies to feed curent numbers). The reduction in livestock numbers and a 100 million acre US corn potential could see this market crash hard this spring.

[charliep]

Indications are that Japan is tendering again for feed barley so more business could be done.

[MoeAgostino]

Hi Guys,
We are on a trip through the Midwestern USA and spending a few days at the Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa. Corn looks terrible, soybeans are still green for the most part and the rainfall this week might add a little yield.

Here is a video we did from the show.

>

[errolanderson]

Moe . . . thanks for the posting, good
report.

Charlie . . . good news about Japan
tendering for barley. Believe Japan and
Saudi Arabia have been very quiet buyers
of Cdn barley of late.

Believe also that this is a solid
opportunity for growers to be pricing
feed barley ahead of the September rush.

[MarshallDillon]

Thanks for the update, Moe. If corn is done going up, is that it for wheat and oats? Oats price action not very good. Too much shenaneganz. Lots of guys cutting down/not growing any next year. Me too.
Canola acerage will be cut dramatically in Manitoba in '13 by the comments I am hearing. More beans.

[Kodiak]

I hear more and more analysts, fund managers, buyers, and even farmers saying the top is in, the top is near, or its right around the corner.
I love it. Suggests to me its likely a ways away away yet;-)
I hope more get on the "top is in" bandwagon. Pretty much would guarantee higher prices down the road!

[errolanderson]

Kodiak . . . you may well get your wish,
but believe market now needs fresh
bullish info to keep the price fires
going.

Will it be Big Ben on Friday greasing up
his printing press? (doubt it, but
maybe)

Russia and Ukraine could well limit or
ban wheat exports sometime this fall

Cdn oat fundamentals are still bullish
in my mind. Higher milling oat bids
(IMO) in the winter a real possibility
despite a possible setback in U.S. corn
values.

[charliep]

International Grains Council Information on world barley production.

World: Barley production forecast revised down to 130.1 mln tonnes in 2012/13
The IGC revised down on August, 23 its global 2012/13 barley production forecast to 130.1 mln tonnes (previous forecast 131.1; 2011/12 134.4 mln tonnes).

Output in the EU-27 was revised up to 53.0 mln tonnes (52.6; 51.7 mln tonnes respectively) and in the USA to 4.8 mln tonnes (4.7; 3.4). Ukraine remains unchanged at 6.8 mln tonnes (9.0; 9.1), while the crop in Canada is revised up to 9.2 mln tonnes (8.6; 7.8). Production is seen down in Russia at 14.0 mln tonnes (15.5; 16.9) and in Australia at 7.0 mln tonnes (7.5; 8.6).

Global use is forecast at 130.5 mln tonnes (130.9; 135.6), including 86.3 mln tonnes (86.4; 90.5) for feed, 6.6 mln tonnes (6.6; 6.8) for food and 28.9 mln tonnes (29.1; 29.0) for industrial use.

Global barley trade is projected to reach 17.3 mln tonnes (17.3; 20.7) and ending stocks 27.5 mln tonnes (27.6; 27.8)>