Pro Farmer Yield Results

[Kodiak]

I hear more and more analysts, fund managers, buyers, and even farmers saying the top is in, the top is near, or its right around the corner.
I love it. Suggests to me its likely a ways away away yet;-)
I hope more get on the "top is in" bandwagon. Pretty much would guarantee higher prices down the road!

[errolanderson]

Kodiak . . . you may well get your wish,
but believe market now needs fresh
bullish info to keep the price fires
going.

Will it be Big Ben on Friday greasing up
his printing press? (doubt it, but
maybe)

Russia and Ukraine could well limit or
ban wheat exports sometime this fall

Cdn oat fundamentals are still bullish
in my mind. Higher milling oat bids
(IMO) in the winter a real possibility
despite a possible setback in U.S. corn
values.

[charliep]

International Grains Council Information on world barley production.

World: Barley production forecast revised down to 130.1 mln tonnes in 2012/13
The IGC revised down on August, 23 its global 2012/13 barley production forecast to 130.1 mln tonnes (previous forecast 131.1; 2011/12 134.4 mln tonnes).

Output in the EU-27 was revised up to 53.0 mln tonnes (52.6; 51.7 mln tonnes respectively) and in the USA to 4.8 mln tonnes (4.7; 3.4). Ukraine remains unchanged at 6.8 mln tonnes (9.0; 9.1), while the crop in Canada is revised up to 9.2 mln tonnes (8.6; 7.8). Production is seen down in Russia at 14.0 mln tonnes (15.5; 16.9) and in Australia at 7.0 mln tonnes (7.5; 8.6).

Global use is forecast at 130.5 mln tonnes (130.9; 135.6), including 86.3 mln tonnes (86.4; 90.5) for feed, 6.6 mln tonnes (6.6; 6.8) for food and 28.9 mln tonnes (29.1; 29.0) for industrial use.

Global barley trade is projected to reach 17.3 mln tonnes (17.3; 20.7) and ending stocks 27.5 mln tonnes (27.6; 27.8)>

[oneoff]

Very good job talking things down guys. If only we could count on you being either right or wrong..... there would be guaranteed huge profits.

But especially as market pundits know; no one knows one bit better than anyone else where the market is going. And for that reason alone, there is zero reason to put any real faith in any one or two person's opinions and analysis.

[charliep]

oneoff

You are absolutely right except for talking the market
down. The market doesn't care what I think.

Perhaps why I like to stay focused on the businesss of
making money on a farm with marketing one
component. The idea of managing risk by spreading
pricing decisions over a crop year by looking for
marketing opportunities. Some farmers do this very
well. Lots of surveys suggest most sell the vast
majority of the crop in the bottom third of the
market.

[bucket]

If 14 bucks for 3.5 green count canola off the combine is in the bottom third of the market, I guess I will have to live with that.

[errolanderson]

Weekly soybean exports released this week
of about 730,000MT for the past week are
still too strong. More price-rationing is
needed to slow this amazing demand.

Corn weekly exports were dismal at 134,000
MT, well below expectations.

[wd9]

IS corn below because corn is being held
or because corn demand is low?

[charliep]

Some elements of both although a lot of stuff at play.

Tight carryover from the 2011/12 crop year (old
crop).

Basis levels across the US midwest that are pretty
wanky to reflect non traditional movement/freight
spreads and other issues.

Importers that are buying Ukraine, Russian, European
and yes, Canadian feed wheat plus corn from where it
can be found. The Canadian feed wheat part includes
at least 1 or 2 (maybe more) unit trains of winter
wheat into Texas. Flow of feed grains around is
becoming interesting as buyers adapt.

Hurricane Isaac at the Gulf and drought issues on the
river system that impact transortation in the US.

A livestock industry that is adapting to a new reality.
The reality has been there for a while. Livestock
numbers will adjust - have to.

An early harvest with at least some element of early
delivery to pay bills and fill early stuff farmers have
contracted last spring (assuming they got the
production).

Prices have to reduce US corn consumption and
exports combined by 20 to 25 %. The question is
whether $8/bu corn can do it. Indications that it is
working to date. You have all the other world
economic and financial events being discussed
including potential for a "Black Swan" event no one is
even imagining.

If you think the market is undervalued, store grain
and get long futures.