I think Im high with my 14.6 m Canola Crop!

[SASKFARMER3]

I think I am now high with my original
back in July estimate for Canola. Why
you ask because of something Tom and
Charlie said on Agriville.
See yes Manitoba isnt great, and Yes Saskatchewan is a shit show. But Alberta isn't going to get what they have been
spouting.
Why? Tom I guess is a very good farmer
and the other day he said his Canola was
35. Charley said it looks awsome from
the road at 120 km.
Well ask any one in Saskatchewan how
well they thought their Canola was back
in July and you would get a yes its
great.
Alberta has Hail storm after hail storm.
Yet their going to on average see a 10
to 15% above normal Canola crop. Just by
the numbers of acres seeded and yield I
thinks maybe alberta wont get to where
their spouting now.
Time will tell. Yes their is awesome
crops out their but on a whole I don't
think its as big as their saying.
Just like Texas, No!
WE will see but 13.9 is starting to
maybe seem closer.
Also now some HRS and Durum yields are disappointing.
Yea its a bumper.
Trust a farmer on Yield not a Suit in a
office, or car tour at 100km.

[HappyFarmer]

Totally Agree Saskfarmer. With what is going on in Western Manitoba as well as what i am hearing in others areas, any where around 14 or minus .2 is close enough. Simply not enough 40 bushel crops on the praries to make up deficits elsewhere.
Was combining as swath last night for 50 bushels that will be lucky to make 20. And from what I hear around here that is maybe just abover average. Lots our 5, 10 and 15 bushels are being reports, and its mostly because aster yellow, most stuff got sprayed for sclorintina.

[tubs]

I am here in east centralalberta crop stand was great looled like a 40 bu crop at 100km hr but it only makes about 25 bu

[charliep]

Everyone is fixated on production (important for your bottom line but I not sure about impact on the market) but I would be following the demand side. I would separate your marketing into three periods.

Remainder 2012 - How big a canola export program (traditional plus China/others)? How well covered is this program by farmer contracts? For uncovered crusher and exporter canola requirements, what will it take to keep farmer deliveries flowing to meet these needs? As much a basis play as futures.

Early 2013 - Will monster oilseed demand continue for China? Acres and yield prospects Brazil and Argentina? How much canola was moved to end 2012? Actual western Canadian canola production and tightness of supplies? Price sensitive customers like China and their ability to switch to other oilseeds or slow consumption? A black swan event no one can even guess.

Late spring summer 2013 - Realities of South American production and logistics. Acreage war and yield potential for US crop. Other stuff that impacts demand.

I will note you are relying on China to continue buying. Concerns about supplies are causing China to forward book a lot of oilseeds as a hedge against running short of supplies. US is the only soybean source/extremely tight supplies and China is paying up. As soon as China gets covered to the extent it wants or becomes comfortable with South America, I think they will back off their monster buying. I highlight the inverses in the soybean market.

[Partners]

Talked to a fellow from Arborfield..He combined 2 1/4's of canola...One went 10 and the other was 4 b/a...Plus they are so wet that one field is totally ripe but they can't get on it...I think $14.00 canola is to cheap for the stress some farmers are going through ....

[furrowtickler]

14.1, not all is shit..Not all is good but should be ok with ac involved

[riders2010]

Charlie why do you think we are all locked onto the production number? It's because all the so called experts the first thing that comes out of their mouths is big crop coming so pressure on prices. I guess maybe you are revealing that those statements are all a crock of crap. Just like these prices are such a stress on the consumer get real these prices mean pennies added to what consumers pay, it's the middlemen fn us that don't want to be cut.

[charliep]

I think my number all summer - not based on
anything but pulled out of my butt just to have a
number. 20 million acres harvested (seeded 21.3
according but likely lower given the spring) and 33
bu/acre.

I will acknowledge that the crop may be down around
14 MMT but I don't think that will really matter at the
end of the day. Canola is a follower of other oilseed
crops and soybean/palm oil. It hasn't mattered all
summer. To farmers benefit, crushers and exports
have sold a monster crop this fall based on their
expectations of a monster crop. The reality is likely a
smaller crop and a struggle at points to get canola up
the driveway. Crush margins are good today but I
would expect this to improve futures and keep basis
tight.

2011/12 was amazing year to me. We sold a record
crop (still suspect under estimated) - a demand lead
rally with record exports and crush. I recognize this
is a different year (likely are down closer to 14 MMT)
but I get deja vu from the last 2 years. It has been
the crop that has paid the bills in the last few years.
What Canada grows means didley squat given we can
sell every kernel.

Canola prices are close to record highs. If you think
futures are under valued, Texas hedge your crop (get
long futures).

[charliep]

I will note a consulting company ARD uses has
soybeans in the $18 to $20/bu range for most of the
winter (not cottonpickens $24 but records). Soybean
meal closer over $600/tonne. Soybean more or less
hanging around the mid to upper 50 cent/lb range.

You have a strong look at $14 plus per bushel. Will
be very interesting to see how you guys market your
crop.

[charliep]

My production canola number 15 MMT - again not
scientifict. Just a number. I pay attention to the what
Canada can sell and at what price.

[charliep]

You are record. Here what was said last July.

[URL="https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1341333780"]July 3[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

I said this drop was shit show since mid July and
all the experts said I was wrong then once the
combines started to roll the truth came out that a
farmer was correct canola it is a shit show. Trust
what the farmer sees not what some hack says.
That's what farmers are pissed at the trade
wanted right up till the combines rolled to steal
this crop because us stupid farmers planted a shit
load and were going to over produce again, well
mother nature screwed us and them.