I know there are some other analysts on here but I will highlight todays July 31 stocks report. For me, a time to update my supply demand tables.
The features of today's report I found interesting.
Canola was the most interesting. The numbers didn't work and were adjusted today starting with an increase to the 2009/10 farm stocks (increased by about 300,000 tonnes) and carrying right through to the 2011/12 crop year. 2011 production was increased to 14.5 MMT (up 300,000 tonnes) but carrycover came in at 800,000 tonnes (farm stocks 225,000 tonnes). A record 8.8 MMT of exports and 7 MMT of domestic crush.
Barley was the second surprise. No adjustments to previous years farm inventories or production. The surprise was a carryover of 1.2 MMT on July 31 with declines in domestic feed consumption (an extremely low 5.6 MMT). The shrink in domestic cattle and hog numbers continues to impact feed demand and this trend will continue given current losses in the industry.
The adjustment to peas was a 400,000 tonne increase in 2011 production - needed to happen given the meagre carryover of 276,000 tonnes.
Wheat and oats - no surprises.
Falaxseed - a little playing around with previous years July 31 farm stocks.
The features of today's report I found interesting.
Canola was the most interesting. The numbers didn't work and were adjusted today starting with an increase to the 2009/10 farm stocks (increased by about 300,000 tonnes) and carrying right through to the 2011/12 crop year. 2011 production was increased to 14.5 MMT (up 300,000 tonnes) but carrycover came in at 800,000 tonnes (farm stocks 225,000 tonnes). A record 8.8 MMT of exports and 7 MMT of domestic crush.
Barley was the second surprise. No adjustments to previous years farm inventories or production. The surprise was a carryover of 1.2 MMT on July 31 with declines in domestic feed consumption (an extremely low 5.6 MMT). The shrink in domestic cattle and hog numbers continues to impact feed demand and this trend will continue given current losses in the industry.
The adjustment to peas was a 400,000 tonne increase in 2011 production - needed to happen given the meagre carryover of 276,000 tonnes.
Wheat and oats - no surprises.
Falaxseed - a little playing around with previous years July 31 farm stocks.
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