USDA September Supply Demand

[charliep]

Attached is the USDA report. Quick glance tells me
minimal impact on the market. The issue is now the
demand side and how the market place reduces
consumption to reflect the new reality. Is not
happening with soybeans - buyers still buying.
Reality is hitting home on feedgrains with prices
doing their job. Wheat is somewhat of an untold
story as has been a follower to date.

<a href=
"http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.
pdf">USDA September</a>

Some thing weird is happening with Agriville/my Mac
this am so may have to clip and paste yourself.

[charliep]

Here is try 2.

[URL="http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf"]USDA September[/URL]

[wd9]

Isn't there a very real limit to reduced
consumption? Is that level known?

[charliep]

The answer to that question is when the market runs
out of supplies. The markets function is to drive up
prices to cut back on consumption. Normally over
corrects but we will see this time. The question in the
market place now is whether prices are rationing this
years small crop.

No talk of food inflation but it will be coming. What
will governments do here?

How will farmers in other parts of the world respond.
Don't know if Mother nature will cooperate but there
will be powerfull incentive for South American
farmers to plant soybeans with the full package of
inputs.

But I am talking down record prices. Place your bets
and play the game. Bull markets have long tails. I
almost made a slip and wrote tales. I suspect there
will be many conversations on Agriville.

[bucket]

It sounds like they are counting early new crop harvested as old crop. That isn't right but it happens all the time.

Canola is a good example. If the supplies were there that the counters say there is, canola would not have rallied to over 14 dollars in harvest considering the supposedly record large crop that was coming.

[errolanderson]

Personally see today's report as
slightly bearish corn . . . Dec corn to
$7.50/bu next step?

Soybeans neutral.

Tomorrow market may endure the
disappointment of no QE3 announced by
Big Ben in the PM. That might shake the
funds. Will be an interesting reaction
one way or another.

[boarderbloke]

How do you feel an Israeli strike on Iran without USA will affect commodity markets(oil, gold, potash,copper), but particularly grains?
Seems Obama wants to wait, or is not interested, while the Israelis are ready to go and perhaps fear Obama will be reelected and still nothing will happen.

[fjlip]

All the disaster in the news about widespread drought, food shortages, and the yield numbers are 17% less corn, 15% less Soy. Half a crop was the way it sounded!
What f'ing disaster? I call bullshit. The USA ALWAYS gets a crop, no matter the weather stories.

The windstorm might have taken more than 15% of the canola yesterday!

[charliep]

Everybody likes to beat their chest/get mad but sometimes it is nice to just watch market reaction without evaluating. The oilseed market seems to have more legs - more questions about the rationing process. Should wait for the close but pay attention to what is going on in the market.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/"]farms.com[/URL]

[charliep]

For what it is worth, nothing really new happened. Oilseed markets popped off their technical support areas but are still in their trading ranges. Corn futures closed below their support line (my thought realizing one day is not a trend).

Canola butted its head against its resistance area ($645 on the November contract). Stay tuned for daily updates.

[MoeAgostino]

Here is my video report on today's usda reports...bullish canola/oilseeds.

[farmgal71]

Charlie we appreciate the information you share here.

We realize that you are trying to help people make good business decisions.

The responsibility on marketing our crops is each producer's alone...make your own decisions.

Thanks again for your opinions.