Canola market today?

[furrowtickler]

Reaction to reality ?

[fjlip]

Driving around, 20-30% of canola will not get to the bin. Get worried world, SFA canola.
She's a f'ing mess out here and still blowing like a bitch!
$20 minimum.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, $20/bu equates to $900/tonne canola futures. Was is your forecast for CBT soybean oil that would support this price?

As an interesting note, China has been an active buyer of canola as well as canola oil (unrefined) and meal. You can follow the production side but to me the play is what China does. Only one following market activities this fall but how logistics play out on the west coast and the crops that move/grain companies can source out of farmers bins will also be interesting.

[charliep]

You guys hate me when I put up numbers and history but here is the end of year tally for crop exports (CGC).

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/ecgwf-egcfb/2012/exports-exportations-12-07-eng.pdf"]Final 2011/12[/URL]

Your consideration is what happens if the production number is 12 MMT (no idea if accurate) and the market place has to cut 3 MMT of consumption out the s&d. I suspect the fall program/export plan for the west coast is pretty much in place. Broken record but execution is still the question.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie I've finally had it with the bull shit that
comes out of your mouth. The damn crop in the
USA is Fricking a disaster. The south American
crop was shit and guess what the god damn world
will be out of oil seed come next summer if the
south American crop has any problems. Canola
has to fill the void but if idiots keep telling farmers
it's all ok so sell now it can't happen. Well god
today made it happen canola is ****ed over the
entire province,

[Ronski]

Kind of early to be drinking Sask? It isn't a record crop (or even average) but it isn't a wreck.
I think Canola is going to hold value through harvest lows much better now that it isn't forced to cashflow CWB grains so $10 off the combine was a shitty price. (historically good but not in this new environment)

Settle down and stop the name calling (can't believe I said that)

[charliep]

I don't think I have told anyone to sell although I have suggested to guys that have called that selling $14/bu plus canola is never a bad thing to meet fall cash flow needs or storage issues. What I suggested is that logistics are tight for canola to the end of December and how this crop actually pans out/movement are big factors. I think the price improvement could come from basis as much as futures.

I will say it again. If you are aggravated about the crop you are leaving in the field and you inability to participate in the rally you see, get a pair and get long canola futures.

[malleefarmer]

whoa sask3 its only charlies opinion,
take it or leave it, agriville is a civil
place usually lets keep it that way

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry Charlie but as I watch the last 2000 acres of
our 2012 canola crop blow away, and their is
nothing I can do just keep harvesting and watch
the destruction. It's almost 5 and still the hurricane
blows. Now their saying on the weather that it's
probably another 2 to 4 hours. So yes it's
frustrating,

[charliep]

I understand and apologize if I appear to be rubbing salt in the wound. Just trying to keep everyone focused on the market to some extent and present some alternative ideas.

I realize it is a disasterous situation for individual farmers (there are many this year). The disaster will apply to the whole supply chain - all elements live off volume handle just like farmers live off volume of production.

You strategy is to market your canola late winter/early spring. You can play the South American card during this period. Nothing wrong with this. Just encouraging others to have a strategy (likely not the same as yours) that highlights price targets, specific sales periods or whatever that identifies when they or at what price. Not written in stone but rather puts some discipline in marketing.

Do I have all the answers for the coming year? Not a chance. Will start that I am just as confused as everyone. There will be a number eventually and I can working from there on the numbers side (a bean counter).

[fjlip]

Ronski, what's left is a wreck in all of the prairies. Hail in the Peace!
There is a minimum 20% loss of already below average yields, the tonnes are on the ground. But will it be counted properly? And when? That's when shit hits the fan...Dec -Jan, IMHO.
Darn near crop insurance for every grain here. Heard 30bu/acre oats.

[riders2010]

Kinda funny one of the anti wheat board guys told me that in this situation the wheat board may work for him because he has such a poor crop he has to sell now but may want in on the 20 bucks.

[wd9]

Charliep, apparently confusing the
emotional issue with fact is way too much
for some.

Keep the real data coming.

[Ronski]

I feel for you guys that have watched your crop blow away but its kind of tiring hearing the same lines. Crop is a dud, oh wait its all better now, nope its shit and the world is ending. Anybody that pays more than me for rent or land is an idiot cause I'm the only guy that knows what everything is worth. Hutts, chinese, etc blah blah blah.

Picking on Sask for the moment but its all of us at times.
Whats worse, watching your crop blow away or fighting in the mud like Freewheat for multiple years breaking iron and turning grey trying to get something established to grow out some moisture? I've been doing this for 20 years and 20% below average isn't a wreck. 80% hail, 80% unseeded due to moisture after fall applying fertilizer or frost in mid august is a wreck. It sucks but some years you get 30% above average so this should average out (and this year prices should offset any production loss?).

Don't mean to be a dick but things are shaping up to be great for prices this year and hopefully better next year for production and prices.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry Charlie but as I watch the last 2000 acres of
our 2012 canola crop blow away, and their is
nothing I can do just keep harvesting and watch
the destruction. It's almost 5 and still the hurricane
blows. Now their saying on the weather that it's
probably another 2 to 4 hours. So yes it's
frustrating,