Canola market today?

[fjlip]

Ronski, what's left is a wreck in all of the prairies. Hail in the Peace!
There is a minimum 20% loss of already below average yields, the tonnes are on the ground. But will it be counted properly? And when? That's when shit hits the fan...Dec -Jan, IMHO.
Darn near crop insurance for every grain here. Heard 30bu/acre oats.

[riders2010]

Kinda funny one of the anti wheat board guys told me that in this situation the wheat board may work for him because he has such a poor crop he has to sell now but may want in on the 20 bucks.

[wd9]

Charliep, apparently confusing the
emotional issue with fact is way too much
for some.

Keep the real data coming.

[Ronski]

I feel for you guys that have watched your crop blow away but its kind of tiring hearing the same lines. Crop is a dud, oh wait its all better now, nope its shit and the world is ending. Anybody that pays more than me for rent or land is an idiot cause I'm the only guy that knows what everything is worth. Hutts, chinese, etc blah blah blah.

Picking on Sask for the moment but its all of us at times.
Whats worse, watching your crop blow away or fighting in the mud like Freewheat for multiple years breaking iron and turning grey trying to get something established to grow out some moisture? I've been doing this for 20 years and 20% below average isn't a wreck. 80% hail, 80% unseeded due to moisture after fall applying fertilizer or frost in mid august is a wreck. It sucks but some years you get 30% above average so this should average out (and this year prices should offset any production loss?).

Don't mean to be a dick but things are shaping up to be great for prices this year and hopefully better next year for production and prices.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sorry Charlie but as I watch the last 2000 acres of
our 2012 canola crop blow away, and their is
nothing I can do just keep harvesting and watch
the destruction. It's almost 5 and still the hurricane
blows. Now their saying on the weather that it's
probably another 2 to 4 hours. So yes it's
frustrating,

[SASKFARMER3]

Wd emotional, Dah, the stats Canada number for
canola after the wind etc will be 13.84 that's it and
no it's not emotional it's fact.

[sumdumguy]

Sf3, all the small farmers around here are done
and warming up their mobiles that are pointed
toward Phoenix. Management gets exponentially
tougher the more acres you take on. You only
need what you can manage. Sorry, but there are
a few spinning their wheels right into bankruptcy.

Soon they will be statistics. My sister in law says,
you cant smell every fart.

[riders2010]

Thank God you cannot smell every fart because there must be alot of constipated bankers after last night. lol

[SASKFARMER3]

Sumdumguy not one of my neighbours are
completed. So give it a rest their on
their way to phoenix. Thats a crock and
you know it.
Its not acreage since we all end at
around the same time.
Look at whats out their and see, I have
said since summer its a 14.6 well after
the fricking wind event im now for the
first time moving lower and guess what
13.8 is what it will shake out at. Sell
if you want because the experts kept
saying farmers are pushing the limits
and can get us back on the plus side
with lots of room for over production
and their fore lower prices. Well guess
what mother nature screwed up those
plans all over the globe.
So sell, Ill be playing the markets on
paper this winter. And no were not going
bankrupt.

[charliep]

Sorry for being the numbers guy.

A 13.5 MMT canola is a 30 bushel yield on 20 million
harvested acres (about - done some rounding).

Domestic crush - 7 to 7.5 MMT.

Core exports - 4 to 4.5 MMT. Japan 2.3 MMT.
Mexico and US - 2 MMT ish.

China and others can scrap over 3 MMT. Down 1
MMT from last crop year.

Even with your number, things are necessarily all that
tight. Production may actually be lower and still not
have that big a market impact outside of the bigger
picture oilseed rally. Broken record but how much
has been sold off the west coast and farmers williness
to deliver will be far bigger issues this fall.