Larry"s 12.87 Mill Canola Crop!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well after switching to Barley yesterday
then back to Canola today, Larry's
number maybe isn't that far off.
The fricking wind even scattered barley
swaths. They looked like flat wide shit.
Its 2012 Barley so you guessed it, its
the shits. Worst yield since frost year
of 2004. But as we were combining
yesterday beside our Canola you can see
the damage in the canola. After staring
at it all day and picking up swaths in
the barley the crop will come in now at
13.15. The problem is friends with
decent late canola crops north of us and
west had higher wind speeds and really
the first day in our area didn't do much
damage it was the second when the wind
changed to the NW that got me.
What are others thinking.
Yes charlie its about demand but from
one of the largest crops ever seeded to
one of the largest crops ever suppose to
be produced it will go down as the year
Canola didn't play ball!

[charliep]

Is the market responding? Yes.

Things I would look at.

Crusher highlight some technical resistance that were
pushed through Friday. One day is not a trend but
technically the market looks ready for its next move
higher.

What is happening with basis levels? A very good
signal as to how the trade is adjusting to the new
environment. Will note the comments on crush
margins below but I suspect local crushers have
booked some pretty profitable cash crush margins
over the summer but the signal to keep canola
flowing is strong basis including positive basis. You
guys are closer than me but a signal that should be
watched and does provide opportunities.

Where is the board crush margin at? Not the real cash
crush margin but an indicator. This margin has been
very good but has started to narrow. Needs to be
watched.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.copaonline.ca/documents/COPAWEEKLYSEPTEMBER122012_000.pdf"]COPA September 12[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

I agree the market is responding,
Breaking the resistance yesterday was
also great.
Basis is dropping!
But again what ps me off on all this is
FARMERS listened since June to advisers
that kept saying the crop was huge, when
any good agrologist could see that the
2012 crop had issues that were beyond a
farmers control. Had a great talk with
two hail adjusters yesterday that rode
with me in the combine. They were
telling guys back in July that something
was wrong with the HRS and Canola in
every field they went into and don't
expect a super crop. I was saying since beginning of July something was wrong.
Experts were saying its the mother of
all crops coming.
So farmers locked in Basis and price at
very high levels and lower values. So doesn't a good adviser and good
agrologist plus a farmer actually
getting out of his truck and walking his
fields help out.
Its the information age and all give
their side from SEED TO FERT TO PRICE
Manipulation. So maybe farmers need to
start getting more involved and see
whats happening.
Those who waited and binned and forgot
are going to make some good money.
Those that sold prematurely will miss
out. Oh well they can always buy paper.
Farming is so much fun!

[DogPatch]

Those barley fields could be salvaged to some extent if you had cattle, or sheep, and the fields were properly fenced. Be lots of good fall picking for a real mixed farmer

[bucket]

What about the guy that sold 3.5 percent green count canola for 14 bucks off the combine to get rid of it and binned the last 2/3s of the canola crop, will he make some good money?

And the guy that did the same with durum, wheat and peas. Covered expenses and binned the rest. Does that make money?

Everyone on here knew this was a shiity crop but 14 buck canola, 8.25 wheat and durum off the combine, IMHO, is too good to pass up. I remember not being able to get 6 bucks for canola off the combine and wheat was far worse.

[SASKFARMER3]

Buckets that works! Yea 6 canola really wasn't
much but wheat was way worse, only thing my
combines we're 105 thousand and drill was 76

[Burbert]

SASKFRAMER 3 is f--kin Superman in
disguise. Swathing barely, combining
canolie all day, booking hawaii
vacation. Fuming mad all day at sum
freaking belly up pork fram. Goin to
the lake ta close tings up, comin back,
viewing all crops in Western Comedia,
what a daze work! Working out margins
on angristability, meating with a
countant ta discuss thing, typing on
angriville, all in a daze work fer Super
framer......

[SASKFARMER3]

Yes burp fart I am! Ah life is good!

[JDGreen]

Not to often i agree with burbs, but twice in a day and he is on a roll. Reminds of my dear old dad worth millions and bitching that he might have to cash in a few rrsp's to keep up the good life. No offence to those with 30, 40, 50, 100 1/4's paid for, but really?? Had a little conversation with an mp (ritzes puppet) yesterday, farm support about to end.