Beef Shortage into 2013?

[errolanderson]

Number of traders now suggest 'Cattle On Feed' report will show another drop in feedlot placements on Friday aft.
This will be the 3rd month in a row.

Seems like scorched pastures in the U.S. aren't seeing the cattle move into the lots. Rather feeders are saying enough is enough with their feeding losses.

Wonder if the U.S. cash cattle market is headed to $130/cwt in the near-term?
(IMO)big gains must be seen in the fats over the next few months to keep the beef counters stocked. Cdn fed bids have struggled of-late due to packers well covered in the near-term and the strong loonie.

But is the loonie in for a correction soon due to the recent steep losses in crude oil?

Cattle fundamentals appear quite bullish, but the fed prices must respond sharply (IMO).

Thoughts?

[haveapulse]

Fresh chicken breasts: 5.00 lb Safeway Flier
Grilling T bone Stead: 4.99 lb Sobeys

Unless your born into beef you are not starting a cattle operation anytime soon, even at tcurrent profit numbers, and lot of the young fellows around our place left in the middle of BSE for the patch. I know cause I have a hankering for a herd and do the math.

The gap may not show until after 2013.

[errolanderson]

McDonald's apparently preparing for
shortage with their rumoured new product
launch . . . . 'Fish McBites'

[bucket]

No shortage here. I'll just go out and shoot one for the deep freeze.

More guys are getting out - a super b of canola pays better and hurts less than raising cattle.

Consumers oughta start waking up to the facts. Pay more or get less.

[ASRG]

Beef is pricing itself out of the market. When it gets too high people will just stop buying it.
In the big picture this might not be a bad thing? We really don't need to eat as much meat as we have in the past?
Cattle can clean up a lot of grass on land that is not suitable for grain. Maybe that is the future for beef production? Feeding $5-6 barley doesn't pay.....feeding grass on junk land might? It seems to work everywhere else in the world?

[Burbert]

Beef is not good for you anyway, high
prices WILL make everyone eat better in
the long run. Chicken fish and pork'll
fill the gap, along with some wild meat,
er road kill!

[ado089]

The trouble is that even junk land is
going to run you a minimum of $400/ac
before you put a fence around it. That's
pretty steep investment for a commodity
as volatile as beeves.

I've been several places in the world
were there is shoulder high grass for as
far as you can see over a 4hr drive and
the temperature never gets below
freezing. That is were the world's beef
will come from.

[grassfarmer]

Ever tried fattening cattle on shoulder high grass?
Don't work too good - hence many are still producing
3 and 4 year old slaughter animals. Places with higher
temperatures also have all kind of fly/insect/worm
problems that we don't encounter. They usually
counter these and the heat problem by running bos
indicus cattle - which tend to make for tough beef.
Sure winters are long in Canada and we will never be
the lowest cost producers but we could produce some
of the best beef in the world - if we'd just drop the
hormones, beta antagonists and liver destroying grain
diets that dumb our product down to American
standards.

[hedgehog]

how is intensive pork or chicken better for you than range reared beef?

[wilagro]

grassfarmer: High barley diets do quite a job on beef livers. I worked for Canada Packers in Edmonton many moons ago and worked both on the kill-floor and the fancy meats dep't. Some of those livers we examined were inedible and were totally burned out.

My father raised shorthorn cattle and fed only hay and a ration mainly of ground oats with some add-mixture of ground barley and/or wheat, to the animal(s) that we butchered for our own consumption. It was great tasting with some light marbling and no bad livers ever.

[burnt]

Liver health is strongly related to management practices. High grain diets do indeed lead to acidosis which causes lesions on the liver, but can be offset by reducing bunk-space competition (stress) and by adding buffers, Vit. E and a bit more roughage to the diet.

We are enjoying some of the best beef ever right now. Rotational grazed on soft grass/alfalfa with about 5 lbs of grain daily and then finished over winter on mostly corn with a couple pounds of very soft hay per head/day.

Marbled, but not lardy like we have had on straight grain fed, and oh so tender . . .

[ASRG]

Burnt: That sounds like a good way to feed for personal beef. I prefer a grass fat heifer, but the 5 lbs. of barley would add some fat/marbling for sure.

[ado089]

Grassfarmer, I don't know that we can
lay claim to the best beef in the world
anymore. It's among the best but there
isn't much difference from our beef fed
corn while living up to their knees in
shit compared to US beef fed corn while
living up to their knees in shit. Some
of the best beef I've had was in Chile
and Argentina. I will admit that I don't
care much for European or African beef.
We have a good product but if best is
the goal we still have some work to do.

[grassfarmer]

Thats why I said we COULD produce the best beef in
the world. I didn't say we do.

[perfecho]

Within 30 years, most of our meat will be manufactured in patria dishes.....
http://www.cbc.ca/ideas/podcasts/
and go to
Moses Znaimer's ideacity, Part 3
also, the Roger Martin part is fascinating.