Charlie, have we seen the top of canola prices?

[malleefarmer]

i know sask is gonna wring my neck but
the market is never wrong....

yield potential of wheat and canola in
australia is starting to deteriorate and
farmers here are saying whats wrong with
this market cant they see we havent got
a crop here in some places

but as errol says it global and
sometimes our local problems are mere
drop in the ocean sorry sask3

[bucket]

Charliep

If they bought all the way up, then they
must realize this is a bargain to keep
buying.

The Chinese have been known to resell
their purchases while the commodity is
on the boat and buy cheaper. History
will repeat. The Chinese are buying at
lower levels for sure.

[SASKFARMER3]

Here it is plain and simple. What we all
were taught at the UofS or UofA or UofM
or what ever is all not relevant in today's world. We do as Errol says have
a global shit show. You can only keep
printing money for so long. All the
world is in a pickle which might screw
us farmers this time round. Mother
nature is taking crops out every
possible place and shortages are
happening not stocks rebuilding but
shortages. People have to eat. But Most
countries are broke and only way to keep
peace is to keep your population fed. If
food riots start to break out etc our
crops will be taken and market will mean diddly squat. Probably the worlds
largest war. Will happen. It sucks but
their are no leaders out their and a lot
of finger pointing. I think as farmers
were going to get screwed.

[charliep]

I will note that China has been a big buyer of oilseeds
(soybeans for sure - volume of Canadian canola to be
seen) and oilseed products. They have been less
active in cereals.

The export side on corn has more or less slowed.
North American livestock situation is one of heavy
losses - be thankful you don't have pigs or are
feeding cattle. Wheat and pulses are price followers.

Hopefully everyone appreciates the fact that
international oilseed and feed grain prices are at
record levels. The reason they are at record levels is
because of the drought situation in the US and other
crop problems arournd the world. Prices have stalled
for about 2 months now and have been in a trading
range. You tell me the market hasn't accepted the
major crop problems around the world but I will
suggest the top end has more to do with buyers not
willing to chase prices to higher levels.

The speculative community has also been in the
market but they have not pushed prices higher either.
This communities participation in the market or
perhaps willingness to stay long in a global melt
down is open to debate. Not 100 % sure what will
happen here (not as negative as some) but bigger
financial problems in the past have been financial
vacuums that have pulled money out of commodities
at least in the short term.

I will continue to highlight western Canadian farmers
are being offered record prices. The markets will do
whatever the markets do over the next 6 months to a
year. Have a marketing plan which I am going to
suggest selling at strategic points over this period.

Takes your money and place your bets. Some here
will try to call every nuance and move of the market.
Others will target profit and sell accordingly.

[riders2010]

It should be higher if not now it never will be, but the last time they were at up and the Chineese starting talking that they either spend their money on food or oil. We then had officials go over there sign oil deals and boom the prices for grains dropped, very similar to what is occurring right now.

[cottonpicken]

https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1346768589

http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/ZSX12

Caught the top,wait for the bounce at 16 before selling,pray we don't crash through.

[SASKFARMER3]

I do agree Charlie disciplined selling is good.
Watch last Friday was a great day to sell canola. I
also agree with cotton if we don't get a bounce at
16 holly shit.

[mbratrud]

Monte you are very brave to be 100
percent long. There are a lot of things
that could go wrong with this Market.
Even though many of us believe there
will be another run up. If that takes a
couple of months a lot could happen to
undermind that. I don't know what you
grow, but there are many commodities
defered Canola included that are still
have good price levels (Canola tighter
basis further out) that you could reduce
your risk exposure with. You may very
well make out like a Bandit by staying
long, but its a for lack of a better
word Ballsy move. I do believe the
downside is Limited, and I don't think
we need to worry about $12 Canola or $7
wheat. JMHO.

Let's not forget it is Harvest time,
there is going to be harvest pressure
this time of year. Just how low will it
go and can we stage a full recovery?

Questions that will be answered in the
coming months... Anyone know a good card
reader?

[charliep]

I'll add storability into the equation. Canola should be dry but going into the bin at 25 degrees. Will depend some on green seed count and other issues but could be a year of pretty weird moisture migration in bins. I know you will tell me can be handled with aeration and monitoring/moving canola around but still needs to be watched and a risk.

Also need to watch the theft side. A "B" train of canola is worth $25,000. Not a bad afternoons work.

[charliep]

Something that is causing me some angst in this discussion is soybean oil. Held a trading range of 52 to 58 cents/lb for most of the summer but popped into the 56 to 58 cent/lb range over the last. Last couple of days has slipped back under 55 cents. Would feel more confident in higher prices if I saw something more exciting here.