Charlie, have we seen the top of canola prices?

[monte]

Just wondering what you are reading and thinking?

Seems like the market has decided oilseeds have seen the highs with the past few sessions trending downwards.

Thanks

[SASKFARMER3]

No! It's a shit show right to the last field. So if any
one thinks the USA crop is growing or the
Canadian is getting bigger keep smoking The
cheap stuff. Also it's a long time till brazil or
Argentina harvests.

[charliep]

I suspect we have put in our short term highs. The
market I suspect has built in the shortfalls in
production with only caveat you need to follow China
to determine whether they stay in the market or start
to back down. Soybean supplies remain tight and the
question is whether the job of rationing is happening.

Watch all the factors in the market. Basis levels.
Changes in volume and open interest. Charts.
Delivery and export activity. The market is going to
stay interesting and always be right at the end of day.

[bucket]

China is a master of market manipulation. Talk the market down to buy at lower prices.

I suspect they are getting close to a major purchase.

Russia did it in the 70s and I think china has pulled it off a couple of times since. The world is short grains and oilseeds. Too bad every Tom Dick and harry buys into the nonsense that china is in a recession.

Short crops in Russia ukraine brazil and the USA and where do the buyers go for their supplies????

Just asking but WTF is wrong with some people.

[monte]

Thanks guys.

We are still waiting to sell some crop and hope you are right.

I agree China is a player in the market, read yesterday they were selling some soybean reserves and doing a grain deal with Ukraine.

[charliep]

bucket

Check your facts. China has been in this market all
the way up. Will they keep buying? Maybe. The
market inverse on soybeans needs to be noticed.
There is a reason.

Only other comment is to use all the tools. Even if
you bullish the future, I would be following basis
levels and use them as a marketing signal. Lots of
tools in the tool box to participate in rallies.

[errolanderson]

The reason canola tanked again today has
nothing to do with SF3s sh.. show or
China manipulating the market. China's
economy is suckin air right now, they
are pulling from their reserves and
Malaysian palm oil was hammered
overnight.

This sell-off is originating from Asia.
Saskatchewan has nothing to do with
influencing this market direction . . .
sorry to say SF3.

The funds are starting to panio plain 'n
simple. Just take a look at crude oil


And the market doesn't have as secret
agenda as some on agriville seem to
think.

guys . . . there's a frickin global
financial disaster in-progress. If you
think canola is immune from it, think
again.

Errol

[furrowtickler]

errol, I am seeing the same thing now. Thinking of dumping everything - kinda. Way too much talk of $20 beans and $17 canola last week. When that shit happens and the price will go to the moon??? At harvest?? Not a good sign IMO

[hedgehog]

recession or not, china has to eat, or there will be big trouble.
they have cash, will purchase.

[ajl]

Government mismanagement of the economy
has screwed every nation on earth except
somehow the Chinese are immune to that.
China is in trouble too and that will
result in their diets reverting back to
what it was a few years back lessening
demand somewhat.

[malleefarmer]

i know sask is gonna wring my neck but
the market is never wrong....

yield potential of wheat and canola in
australia is starting to deteriorate and
farmers here are saying whats wrong with
this market cant they see we havent got
a crop here in some places

but as errol says it global and
sometimes our local problems are mere
drop in the ocean sorry sask3

[bucket]

Charliep

If they bought all the way up, then they
must realize this is a bargain to keep
buying.

The Chinese have been known to resell
their purchases while the commodity is
on the boat and buy cheaper. History
will repeat. The Chinese are buying at
lower levels for sure.

[SASKFARMER3]

Here it is plain and simple. What we all
were taught at the UofS or UofA or UofM
or what ever is all not relevant in today's world. We do as Errol says have
a global shit show. You can only keep
printing money for so long. All the
world is in a pickle which might screw
us farmers this time round. Mother
nature is taking crops out every
possible place and shortages are
happening not stocks rebuilding but
shortages. People have to eat. But Most
countries are broke and only way to keep
peace is to keep your population fed. If
food riots start to break out etc our
crops will be taken and market will mean diddly squat. Probably the worlds
largest war. Will happen. It sucks but
their are no leaders out their and a lot
of finger pointing. I think as farmers
were going to get screwed.

[charliep]

I will note that China has been a big buyer of oilseeds
(soybeans for sure - volume of Canadian canola to be
seen) and oilseed products. They have been less
active in cereals.

The export side on corn has more or less slowed.
North American livestock situation is one of heavy
losses - be thankful you don't have pigs or are
feeding cattle. Wheat and pulses are price followers.

Hopefully everyone appreciates the fact that
international oilseed and feed grain prices are at
record levels. The reason they are at record levels is
because of the drought situation in the US and other
crop problems arournd the world. Prices have stalled
for about 2 months now and have been in a trading
range. You tell me the market hasn't accepted the
major crop problems around the world but I will
suggest the top end has more to do with buyers not
willing to chase prices to higher levels.

The speculative community has also been in the
market but they have not pushed prices higher either.
This communities participation in the market or
perhaps willingness to stay long in a global melt
down is open to debate. Not 100 % sure what will
happen here (not as negative as some) but bigger
financial problems in the past have been financial
vacuums that have pulled money out of commodities
at least in the short term.

I will continue to highlight western Canadian farmers
are being offered record prices. The markets will do
whatever the markets do over the next 6 months to a
year. Have a marketing plan which I am going to
suggest selling at strategic points over this period.

Takes your money and place your bets. Some here
will try to call every nuance and move of the market.
Others will target profit and sell accordingly.

[riders2010]

It should be higher if not now it never will be, but the last time they were at up and the Chineese starting talking that they either spend their money on food or oil. We then had officials go over there sign oil deals and boom the prices for grains dropped, very similar to what is occurring right now.