Charlie, have we seen the top of canola prices?

[cottonpicken]

https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1346768589

http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/ZSX12

Caught the top,wait for the bounce at 16 before selling,pray we don't crash through.

[SASKFARMER3]

I do agree Charlie disciplined selling is good.
Watch last Friday was a great day to sell canola. I
also agree with cotton if we don't get a bounce at
16 holly shit.

[mbratrud]

Monte you are very brave to be 100
percent long. There are a lot of things
that could go wrong with this Market.
Even though many of us believe there
will be another run up. If that takes a
couple of months a lot could happen to
undermind that. I don't know what you
grow, but there are many commodities
defered Canola included that are still
have good price levels (Canola tighter
basis further out) that you could reduce
your risk exposure with. You may very
well make out like a Bandit by staying
long, but its a for lack of a better
word Ballsy move. I do believe the
downside is Limited, and I don't think
we need to worry about $12 Canola or $7
wheat. JMHO.

Let's not forget it is Harvest time,
there is going to be harvest pressure
this time of year. Just how low will it
go and can we stage a full recovery?

Questions that will be answered in the
coming months... Anyone know a good card
reader?

[charliep]

I'll add storability into the equation. Canola should be dry but going into the bin at 25 degrees. Will depend some on green seed count and other issues but could be a year of pretty weird moisture migration in bins. I know you will tell me can be handled with aeration and monitoring/moving canola around but still needs to be watched and a risk.

Also need to watch the theft side. A "B" train of canola is worth $25,000. Not a bad afternoons work.

[charliep]

Something that is causing me some angst in this discussion is soybean oil. Held a trading range of 52 to 58 cents/lb for most of the summer but popped into the 56 to 58 cent/lb range over the last. Last couple of days has slipped back under 55 cents. Would feel more confident in higher prices if I saw something more exciting here.

[ado089]

I would say that we are in for a drop. I
covered all my short positions. I'm usually good for $20/mt

[grassfarmer]

Hey TOM here's a newsflash for you:

Charliep; "...Hopefully everyone appreciates the fact
that international oilseed and feed grain prices are at
record levels. The reason they are at record levels is
because of the drought situation in the US and other
crop problems arournd the world."

See no mention of the cwb losing it's monopoly
resulting in livestock producers having to pay "full
price" for your grain. Sorry to shatter your little
fantasy.

[charliep]

A canola thread/not wanting to get sucked into the debate but will note that export business (off shore and US) is coming together more easily. This will create a very competitive market for both the livestock and malt industry. There is a need for livestock feeders who feed grain to plan better around sourcing and watch price volatility. I have sounded bearish in advice to the crop guys but it is not a market I would want to be short if I was in livestock. Tough situation when a manager is locking in negative margins.

I note your name and the discussion elsewhere. Sometimes watching what farmers do in tough times (livestock industry) is interesting. With the forage around, I will be curious how many cattle are backgrounded and heavan forbid I would suggest, feed forage to heavier weights. Not a livestock guy but I might look at being a little picky on cows/culling and hold more heifers. Likely a dumb idea but there are likely more strategies.

Sorry for taking off canola topic. We do live in interesting times.

[malleefarmer]

some of you guys have commented were
gonna get screwed,heaven help us if
certain things happen with market ie a
downtrend.

It staring at you in my opinion sell
some of you 2013 production at
reasonably good prices will we see
better prices in 2013 say march april
may i think we will but if your worried
sell some now.

Alot of aussie wheat growers are 10%
sold for next year wheat and canola, i
guess our direct costs are way way lower
than canada and usa. Hence we can cover
costs with a lower yeild and price than
you guys

id have a rough guess for 2012 harvest
coming in a couple of months most are
sold about 30 to 40% wheat $290 to 325
port basis and canola $580 to 620

take off $25 to 40 to get a on farm
price

[TOM4CWB]

grassy,

One less excuse to pay less... now the CWB 'single desk' is done. Either pay up... or it gets exported.

If Canola were still under the 'single desk'... and the CWB were offering a farm gate pool initial price of under $400/t... wheat at the old $150/t... past history proved domestic folks PAID less.

I do NOT think we have seen the top of Canola prices... perhaps after US election and they revolk QE3... 6 weeks to go! Harvest price pressure will be over early this year.

Grin!

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

See if you can find out how much hail was in the Canola belt in Alberta.

15-20 perecent down on tonnes alone.???

Never have seen so much damage WOW what a mess.

[charliep]

Don't know the number. Record year for hail
damage.