Charlie, have we seen the top of canola prices?

[ado089]

I would say that we are in for a drop. I
covered all my short positions. I'm usually good for $20/mt

[grassfarmer]

Hey TOM here's a newsflash for you:

Charliep; "...Hopefully everyone appreciates the fact
that international oilseed and feed grain prices are at
record levels. The reason they are at record levels is
because of the drought situation in the US and other
crop problems arournd the world."

See no mention of the cwb losing it's monopoly
resulting in livestock producers having to pay "full
price" for your grain. Sorry to shatter your little
fantasy.

[charliep]

A canola thread/not wanting to get sucked into the debate but will note that export business (off shore and US) is coming together more easily. This will create a very competitive market for both the livestock and malt industry. There is a need for livestock feeders who feed grain to plan better around sourcing and watch price volatility. I have sounded bearish in advice to the crop guys but it is not a market I would want to be short if I was in livestock. Tough situation when a manager is locking in negative margins.

I note your name and the discussion elsewhere. Sometimes watching what farmers do in tough times (livestock industry) is interesting. With the forage around, I will be curious how many cattle are backgrounded and heavan forbid I would suggest, feed forage to heavier weights. Not a livestock guy but I might look at being a little picky on cows/culling and hold more heifers. Likely a dumb idea but there are likely more strategies.

Sorry for taking off canola topic. We do live in interesting times.

[malleefarmer]

some of you guys have commented were
gonna get screwed,heaven help us if
certain things happen with market ie a
downtrend.

It staring at you in my opinion sell
some of you 2013 production at
reasonably good prices will we see
better prices in 2013 say march april
may i think we will but if your worried
sell some now.

Alot of aussie wheat growers are 10%
sold for next year wheat and canola, i
guess our direct costs are way way lower
than canada and usa. Hence we can cover
costs with a lower yeild and price than
you guys

id have a rough guess for 2012 harvest
coming in a couple of months most are
sold about 30 to 40% wheat $290 to 325
port basis and canola $580 to 620

take off $25 to 40 to get a on farm
price

[TOM4CWB]

grassy,

One less excuse to pay less... now the CWB 'single desk' is done. Either pay up... or it gets exported.

If Canola were still under the 'single desk'... and the CWB were offering a farm gate pool initial price of under $400/t... wheat at the old $150/t... past history proved domestic folks PAID less.

I do NOT think we have seen the top of Canola prices... perhaps after US election and they revolk QE3... 6 weeks to go! Harvest price pressure will be over early this year.

Grin!

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

See if you can find out how much hail was in the Canola belt in Alberta.

15-20 perecent down on tonnes alone.???

Never have seen so much damage WOW what a mess.

[charliep]

Don't know the number. Record year for hail
damage.