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2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

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    #21
    charlie et al.... sometimes as an
    analyst or worse, a farmer like myself,
    we dont take the time to look at the
    signs before our eyes...when was the
    last time this time of year clavet and
    others have had a 0 basis or better???
    and I have never heard of clavet buying
    canola from local viterras in sept, and
    you can bet your sweet butt they are not
    doing a 0 basis with viterra..Like when
    the leaves turn color in fall, you know
    winter is coming the signs are there
    that the big canola crop is not out
    there.These outfits are not into giving
    xmas bonuses.The futures are going to
    follow beans and bean oil but the basis
    will dictate price.The commercials will
    have to pay for the product if they want
    to source the supplies..

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      #22
      A positive dollar basis that is dollar above futures price if makes sense is my prediction.


      Sometime in the next 20 years. Give or take a few.

      Comment


        #23
        Emotions are getting the best of me. I am tooo emotional. But combining soft wheat over 60 bushels an acre is awesome. I have equal acres of wheat and canola. My feed fricken wheat is kicken the canola's ass really hard and I am lovin it.

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          #24
          Tom Albertee Maybe had 40 or less but
          again take off the Rose colored glasses.
          You guys and Manitoba don't add up to Saskatchewan's acreage. So Alberta did
          ok and Manitoba is average to below so
          that make you to average. Then Sask has
          very few top yields this year and lots
          of early seeded poor shit. So guess what
          13 is the number either plus or minus
          but that's it.
          Funny a 60 bushel HRS crop at 8 is the
          same as a 25 bushel canola crop at
          19.20. Hm wheat will give us more money
          than Canola. Yes Were above #1 highway
          and yes we have been growing Canola
          (****seed) for over 40 years. We have
          shit varieties that cost way to much for
          seed.

          Comment


            #25
            Charlie. Question is then, what happens come
            June when the canola dries up? I agree canola
            price will follow soy and soy oil but physical
            supplies are still another thing. I guess if the basis
            gets too high to attract whatever canola is left the
            export market may switch to other products. Will
            be interesting what the crushers will pay for a
            basis domestically. I think if futures don't rise then
            by spring we may see record high basis levels by
            a mile

            Comment


              #26
              Not all varieties are shit, take off the invigour and
              Dekalb glasses ... Lol

              Comment


                #27
                The he markets function is to slow
                disappearance so there are adequate
                supplies. Core canola disappearances is
                12 MMT. The real question is how much
                has China bought for fall and early
                winter shipment and what Mexico will do.
                Add in Aussie canola production and how
                much if any can they displace of our
                supplies. Lock the bins if you choose.

                Off everyone's topic but will be really
                interesting to see how grain companies
                manage sales and inventory. They are
                making plans based on production
                realities just like you are. Resources
                and capacity will get allocated where
                the margin are best.

                Comment


                  #28
                  Just call me greedy but I am happy the market is cratering. I have basically no canola inventory left after covering presold and $13.76 in season...not the highest but am happy...Crappy yield so I had to lock in my profit as I didn't want to spend even more money to lock in a downside with a put. I am waiting to buy a cheap call but am questioning the basis implications because I agree with those that talk about the possibility of a high positive basis to attract supply if the futures (and my call upside) never materialize.

                  Comment


                    #29
                    Why sell canola to play canola,when you could sell
                    canola to play wheat?

                    Comment


                      #30
                      Charlie. What is last years total usage and where
                      are we so far to date vs last year? I thought
                      demand is well over 12 MT.

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