2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

[vvalk]

Charlie. Question is then, what happens come
June when the canola dries up? I agree canola
price will follow soy and soy oil but physical
supplies are still another thing. I guess if the basis
gets too high to attract whatever canola is left the
export market may switch to other products. Will
be interesting what the crushers will pay for a
basis domestically. I think if futures don't rise then
by spring we may see record high basis levels by
a mile

[furrowtickler]

Not all varieties are shit, take off the invigour and
Dekalb glasses ... Lol

[charliep]

The he markets function is to slow
disappearance so there are adequate
supplies. Core canola disappearances is
12 MMT. The real question is how much
has China bought for fall and early
winter shipment and what Mexico will do.
Add in Aussie canola production and how
much if any can they displace of our
supplies. Lock the bins if you choose.

Off everyone's topic but will be really
interesting to see how grain companies
manage sales and inventory. They are
making plans based on production
realities just like you are. Resources
and capacity will get allocated where
the margin are best.

[Choice2U]

Just call me greedy but I am happy the market is cratering. I have basically no canola inventory left after covering presold and $13.76 in season...not the highest but am happy...Crappy yield so I had to lock in my profit as I didn't want to spend even more money to lock in a downside with a put. I am waiting to buy a cheap call but am questioning the basis implications because I agree with those that talk about the possibility of a high positive basis to attract supply if the futures (and my call upside) never materialize.

[cottonpicken]

Why sell canola to play canola,when you could sell
canola to play wheat?

[vvalk]

Charlie. What is last years total usage and where
are we so far to date vs last year? I thought
demand is well over 12 MT.

[charliep]

Western Canada exported and crushed
about 16 MMT in 2011/12. My 12 MMT is
based on 7 MMT plus domestic crush, 2.4
MMT japan and 2 MMT US/Mexico. China
isn't included - the wild card. There
were other importers last year like UAE
and Pakistan - won't be supplied this
year.

[vvalk]

Do you think that $600 futures will limit demand
by 25%?

[charliep]

With low to mid 50 cent/pound soybean
oil futures, I suspect yes. Customers
will shift their purchases to other
vegetable oil sources

[charliep]

Both of us will have to watch CGC grain
stats weekly to answer the question
about whether the necessary 25 percent
decline in disappearance is occurring. A
lot of that question will be answered by
the end of 2012.

By way, a lot of you told me how we
would run out of canola by the end of
the 2011/12 crop year. Never happened
although the 250,000 tonneau on farm
stocks is very tight (if believe the
number. The market will always ration
supplies in a tight supply year which I
guess is your question. Stay tuned.

[vvalk]

Your right they didn't run out of canola but Canbra
in Lethbridge was running on fumes. If it wasn't for
the early harvest I suspect they would have has to
shutdown for "maintenance"

[tipsy]

Bunge Nipawin didn't run out either, BUT, they had a plus $40 and a plus $50 a tonne basis to purchases stocks. That was a very nice windfall we manage to take addvantage of on a few remaining bin bottoms.