2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

[errolanderson]

Whether the Cdn canola crop is 13
million or 15 million MT doesn't affect
global veg oil prices whatsoever. It
will affect local basis levels. On a
lower production number, you can bet
your boots that our exports will start
to fail.

What is far more important right now is
the massive slowdown in Asia that has
been sparked by the depression in
Europe. A bullish Stats Can number would
have about a 36 hour glow to the canola
market and then reality sets in of a
failing global veg oil market. If beans
break $15/bu, canola is a $550/MT
market, no ifs, buts or whens.

Guys . . . do not take these massive
canola returns for granted. This global
market is now on eggshells. And our
canola market is not going to save it.

Errol

[crusher]

I look forward to the declining canola seed and fertilizer prices as canola gets sucked down the drain.

[furrowtickler]

errol I agree but these are not massive returns - what planet you on? We all did not get 50bus/ac. It is statements like that that piss alot of people off. They are good returns at best with an average to below average crop. Do you know the average cost of production for canola?

[Choice2U]

Cotton...I am holding wheat to play the wheat market and don't feel like doubling down because I am wrong more often than right.

[fjlip]

You are right, lots of 20bu crops that would be near break even at $13.
Most will collect on crop insurance around here.
But last time we had a short crop the price was shit because nobody came to buy!
Less supply but less demand.

[vvalk]

Hard to put canola in for $260 an acre. $325
I bet is close to average cost with rented
land. Should always pay yourself rent anyways
if you own it outright

[errolanderson]

furrowtickler . . . my apologies. Didn't
mean to offend.

My point which is the 'ugly side' of
markets is that global markets don't
care about the cost of production in
western Canada. That is a sad truth.
Just look our hog industry as an
example.

The Asian slowdown is the key reason for
the washout in canola values right now.
And a recent 30% decline in Asian veg
oil markets can't go unnoticed.

[countryguy]

Asians can quit buying expensive vehicles, stop taking holidays, stop going to the movies, etc. The list goes on and on. The one thing Asians cannot stop doing is eating. And there are more and more of them everyday.

No one in the world wants to give up anything out of their lifestyle to pay more for food hence all the manipulative bullshit that goes on. Analyze BOGUS S&D numbers all you want. That is the way it is.