2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

[SASKFARMER3]

I just cant get my head around the BS
that the USDA and Oil World and Our
government people are saying about our
2012 Canola crop. Read today how lots of
hope then dashed but Canada will still
produce a bumper 14.9 million tonne
crop.
WTF how ficking stupid are these groups.
Try 12.89 OR two million tonnes below
your best guess. Australia is having
frosts so take theirs down a bit also.
Frustrated by BS crop guessing!

[Partners]

The USDA is always crap..Anything to say that the Mighty U.S. always has a VG crop no matter what nature throws @ it...Such a wonderful place to live...Cheap food has always been the world policy...No matter what it takes..

[charliep]

I will post todays stocks report but you feel the numbers are crap based on the assumption you have actually looked at them.

[bucket]

I have talked to people that are from the swan river/kamsack area and guys that have driven the highway from swift current to there. The canola fields looked like shit all summer long.

The guys up north are reporting yields of 30bpa or less where they usually grow 50 plus bpa.


Record crop - not likely charliep, gotta go with SF3 on his assessment this time.


The experts/analysts/traders are using numbers from people that are usually three to four weeks behind reality.

Just because a bunch of canola hit the market at harvest, it doesn't mean there is a huge crop. On my farm, it meant I didn't have to tie up a bin with a small amount of canola. But that bin should have filled in a normal year.

[charliep]

Curious as to where you can highlight I have said a record crop in the last 2 months. I also suspect that there is a difference between what the trade says in the media and what they are using in decision making.

Your challenge to higher prices at this point is not a 13 MMT canola crop or whatever the number. The challenge is 52 cent per pound soybean oil - off 6 cents per pound from the highs. There will be ways to play this market but will require a strategy/execution.

[bucket]

I don't play anything. My bankers/lenders probably don't want to hear about playing when they want their money.

I made 14 bucks on my canola off the combine, if I had played I am not sure I would be money ahead.

Old saying " ... a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush..."

[TOM4CWB]

SF3/Partners,

Make sure you are not crying 'Wolf'.

There are many who did get 40bu/ac... and few who ever expected 50bu/ac.

In a hot summer we all know Canola does not do nearly as well as a cool late season.

This was a near perfect summer for soy. If and when a cooler summer and fall return... soy does nothing and will NOT fill the pods.

Unless you can predict weather season long... and show our frost will hold off to Oct1... Canola still works best for the vast majority of growers above HWY 1... WHICH is WHERE Canola SHOULD be grown!

I do believe the hail and wind have dropped the yeild. How much is certainly up for debate.

I can't see the drop being more than 4-5 bu/ac under July estimates; as much as 15% perhaps.

[Burbert]

Markets are BULLSHIT BASED, hence the
manipulators are always at work to
manipulate to their advantage.
Gobermonts due not want panic. They
want tax payers to go to work each and
every day, to pay taxes. In return the
gobermont pretends to take care of the
people, who for the most part are afraid
of the bogey man. That's the democracy
in action......... GAG is totally,
totally, totally bullshit, cousin
framers are such good guys/gals, they'll
believe any kinda horse pucky. HOW
ABOUT THOSE FALL CANOLA ADS, theys
really makin most slightly crazy.
Aren't they?

[ado089]

By the time my canola started to push one
leaf I had written it off. That said it
podded well and after swathing I was optimistic that it might be an average
crop,30-35. After hail and 10 days of wind
there was 8 bpa missing from my pre-
swathing estimate...and I'm good. That's a
20-25% loss on my ponderosa from September
damage alone.

[bucket]

20 to 25 percent on the early estimates takes close to 4 mmt out of available supplies from where the industry started.

There is no calculus required just a 2 cent calculator will tell most there is not enough canola. I say keep bidding it down and the crushers will find themselves in the rubber room.

Cargill is at a zero basis picked up off farm and allowing farmers to price into July next year. Think they are short currently??????

[furrowtickler]

13.5 is going to be close. As far as price , we
have seen the near term top till the new year IMO

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie since July I have been saying the canola
crop has issues. Most experts kept saying oh ts
just a dumb farmer what does he know, it's a big
crop getting bigger. Well most are done and
guess what the best best yield was 45 that I know
of (it was seeded in june1200 acres) most guys
seeded early so it's not the norm. Then if Alberta
has such a big crop how come we're not getting
bombarded with60 s , because it wast a bin buster
their Los. Then you get traditional areas with lots
of 8 to 10. See we farmers know all in the trade
are hopeing we will sell. Well their is lots of hrs or
oats etc to move. Tell me this a 2 million tonne out
in our total production is t news!

[charliep]

And the impact on prices has been ______?

[URL="http://charts.aghost.net/popup/agonlineCharts.cfm?token=fFom10JB9HBHRm6Bq360suhXN A0W%2B1egRPRXUpqV%2BMEBXtuT3PhUlg%3D%3D&cid=3095&s id=1&co=9d7GScIzY%2Fmu%2Fd86vxcZhg%3D%3D&symbol=@R S2X"]Nov Canola[/URL]

[charliep]

Do either one of you have canola that you would price today? If you don't have canola for sale, why do you care what the price is? Let the market move lower to attract some buying. Buy calls. Get long futures.

Your fly in the ointment is soybean oil has been dog relative to other commodities.

Just curious if anyone has taken the time to look at todays market?

[SASKFARMER3]

You keep missing the point if their is total BS
reports out their and farmers know what the crop
was like why would one sell today at these
prices? Just because you say it's a decent price!