2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

[charliep]

Maybe because they were offered $14 plus per bushel and it worked in their marketing plan. Today it is $13. If $14 wasn't adequate a few weeks ago, why would you sell today at $13/bu.

Had a really interesting conversation with a farm/friend about basis. He actually phoned me to figure out what a good MGEX wheat basis should be. We got into a good conversation about canola basis and what he was being offered off the July contract. Low prices/slow deliveries often means good basis. Fight your war if you want about actual production but the end of the day it is price. Have your targets and pull the trigger when achieved.

[furrowtickler]

your both right , now stop bickering - your starting to hurt my hears... LOL

[jensend]

the old saying: if they won't sell for $13, maybe they'll sell for $9.

[SASKFARMER3]

Read back at my posts sold 20000 for 14.51 basis
done earlier, pulled on a Friday. Rest is sit and
wait. So now with marketing why would any one
sell at today's price?

[bucket]

If you take cargill's offer of a zero basis and you have until July 2013 to price - thats deferred pricing.

Read new ag talk awhile back - most didn't think it works very well because they have your product which fills their short term needs but you can't get paid until you price against the futures. And its inverted right now - so thats like telling them you are willing to take less. Pure speculation.

I would rather them bid for the canola.

And charliep - I am not out of canola but I took advantage of 14 bucks and 3.5 percent green count.

[golden1]

charlie et al.... sometimes as an
analyst or worse, a farmer like myself,
we dont take the time to look at the
signs before our eyes...when was the
last time this time of year clavet and
others have had a 0 basis or better???
and I have never heard of clavet buying
canola from local viterras in sept, and
you can bet your sweet butt they are not
doing a 0 basis with viterra..Like when
the leaves turn color in fall, you know
winter is coming the signs are there
that the big canola crop is not out
there.These outfits are not into giving
xmas bonuses.The futures are going to
follow beans and bean oil but the basis
will dictate price.The commercials will
have to pay for the product if they want
to source the supplies..

[Hopperbin]

A positive dollar basis that is dollar above futures price if makes sense is my prediction.


Sometime in the next 20 years. Give or take a few.

[Hopperbin]

Emotions are getting the best of me. I am tooo emotional. But combining soft wheat over 60 bushels an acre is awesome. I have equal acres of wheat and canola. My feed fricken wheat is kicken the canola's ass really hard and I am lovin it.

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom Albertee Maybe had 40 or less but
again take off the Rose colored glasses.
You guys and Manitoba don't add up to Saskatchewan's acreage. So Alberta did
ok and Manitoba is average to below so
that make you to average. Then Sask has
very few top yields this year and lots
of early seeded poor shit. So guess what
13 is the number either plus or minus
but that's it.
Funny a 60 bushel HRS crop at 8 is the
same as a 25 bushel canola crop at
19.20. Hm wheat will give us more money
than Canola. Yes Were above #1 highway
and yes we have been growing Canola
(****seed) for over 40 years. We have
shit varieties that cost way to much for
seed.

[vvalk]

Charlie. Question is then, what happens come
June when the canola dries up? I agree canola
price will follow soy and soy oil but physical
supplies are still another thing. I guess if the basis
gets too high to attract whatever canola is left the
export market may switch to other products. Will
be interesting what the crushers will pay for a
basis domestically. I think if futures don't rise then
by spring we may see record high basis levels by
a mile

[furrowtickler]

Not all varieties are shit, take off the invigour and
Dekalb glasses ... Lol

[charliep]

The he markets function is to slow
disappearance so there are adequate
supplies. Core canola disappearances is
12 MMT. The real question is how much
has China bought for fall and early
winter shipment and what Mexico will do.
Add in Aussie canola production and how
much if any can they displace of our
supplies. Lock the bins if you choose.

Off everyone's topic but will be really
interesting to see how grain companies
manage sales and inventory. They are
making plans based on production
realities just like you are. Resources
and capacity will get allocated where
the margin are best.

[Choice2U]

Just call me greedy but I am happy the market is cratering. I have basically no canola inventory left after covering presold and $13.76 in season...not the highest but am happy...Crappy yield so I had to lock in my profit as I didn't want to spend even more money to lock in a downside with a put. I am waiting to buy a cheap call but am questioning the basis implications because I agree with those that talk about the possibility of a high positive basis to attract supply if the futures (and my call upside) never materialize.

[cottonpicken]

Why sell canola to play canola,when you could sell
canola to play wheat?

[vvalk]

Charlie. What is last years total usage and where
are we so far to date vs last year? I thought
demand is well over 12 MT.