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2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

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    #31
    Western Canada exported and crushed
    about 16 MMT in 2011/12. My 12 MMT is
    based on 7 MMT plus domestic crush, 2.4
    MMT japan and 2 MMT US/Mexico. China
    isn't included - the wild card. There
    were other importers last year like UAE
    and Pakistan - won't be supplied this
    year.

    Comment


      #32
      Do you think that $600 futures will limit demand
      by 25%?

      Comment


        #33
        With low to mid 50 cent/pound soybean
        oil futures, I suspect yes. Customers
        will shift their purchases to other
        vegetable oil sources

        Comment


          #34
          Both of us will have to watch CGC grain
          stats weekly to answer the question
          about whether the necessary 25 percent
          decline in disappearance is occurring. A
          lot of that question will be answered by
          the end of 2012.

          By way, a lot of you told me how we
          would run out of canola by the end of
          the 2011/12 crop year. Never happened
          although the 250,000 tonneau on farm
          stocks is very tight (if believe the
          number. The market will always ration
          supplies in a tight supply year which I
          guess is your question. Stay tuned.

          Comment


            #35
            Your right they didn't run out of canola but Canbra
            in Lethbridge was running on fumes. If it wasn't for
            the early harvest I suspect they would have has to
            shutdown for "maintenance"

            Comment


              #36
              Bunge Nipawin didn't run out either, BUT, they had a plus $40 and a plus $50 a tonne basis to purchases stocks. That was a very nice windfall we manage to take addvantage of on a few remaining bin bottoms.

              Comment


                #37
                Whether the Cdn canola crop is 13
                million or 15 million MT doesn't affect
                global veg oil prices whatsoever. It
                will affect local basis levels. On a
                lower production number, you can bet
                your boots that our exports will start
                to fail.

                What is far more important right now is
                the massive slowdown in Asia that has
                been sparked by the depression in
                Europe. A bullish Stats Can number would
                have about a 36 hour glow to the canola
                market and then reality sets in of a
                failing global veg oil market. If beans
                break $15/bu, canola is a $550/MT
                market, no ifs, buts or whens.

                Guys . . . do not take these massive
                canola returns for granted. This global
                market is now on eggshells. And our
                canola market is not going to save it.

                Errol

                Comment


                  #38
                  I look forward to the declining canola seed and fertilizer prices as canola gets sucked down the drain.

                  Comment


                    #39
                    errol I agree but these are not massive returns - what planet you on? We all did not get 50bus/ac. It is statements like that that piss alot of people off. They are good returns at best with an average to below average crop. Do you know the average cost of production for canola?

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                      #40
                      Cotton...I am holding wheat to play the wheat market and don't feel like doubling down because I am wrong more often than right.

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