2012 Canadian canola Crop Total Production?

[charliep]

Western Canada exported and crushed
about 16 MMT in 2011/12. My 12 MMT is
based on 7 MMT plus domestic crush, 2.4
MMT japan and 2 MMT US/Mexico. China
isn't included - the wild card. There
were other importers last year like UAE
and Pakistan - won't be supplied this
year.

[vvalk]

Do you think that $600 futures will limit demand
by 25%?

[charliep]

With low to mid 50 cent/pound soybean
oil futures, I suspect yes. Customers
will shift their purchases to other
vegetable oil sources

[charliep]

Both of us will have to watch CGC grain
stats weekly to answer the question
about whether the necessary 25 percent
decline in disappearance is occurring. A
lot of that question will be answered by
the end of 2012.

By way, a lot of you told me how we
would run out of canola by the end of
the 2011/12 crop year. Never happened
although the 250,000 tonneau on farm
stocks is very tight (if believe the
number. The market will always ration
supplies in a tight supply year which I
guess is your question. Stay tuned.

[vvalk]

Your right they didn't run out of canola but Canbra
in Lethbridge was running on fumes. If it wasn't for
the early harvest I suspect they would have has to
shutdown for "maintenance"

[tipsy]

Bunge Nipawin didn't run out either, BUT, they had a plus $40 and a plus $50 a tonne basis to purchases stocks. That was a very nice windfall we manage to take addvantage of on a few remaining bin bottoms.

[errolanderson]

Whether the Cdn canola crop is 13
million or 15 million MT doesn't affect
global veg oil prices whatsoever. It
will affect local basis levels. On a
lower production number, you can bet
your boots that our exports will start
to fail.

What is far more important right now is
the massive slowdown in Asia that has
been sparked by the depression in
Europe. A bullish Stats Can number would
have about a 36 hour glow to the canola
market and then reality sets in of a
failing global veg oil market. If beans
break $15/bu, canola is a $550/MT
market, no ifs, buts or whens.

Guys . . . do not take these massive
canola returns for granted. This global
market is now on eggshells. And our
canola market is not going to save it.

Errol

[crusher]

I look forward to the declining canola seed and fertilizer prices as canola gets sucked down the drain.

[furrowtickler]

errol I agree but these are not massive returns - what planet you on? We all did not get 50bus/ac. It is statements like that that piss alot of people off. They are good returns at best with an average to below average crop. Do you know the average cost of production for canola?

[Choice2U]

Cotton...I am holding wheat to play the wheat market and don't feel like doubling down because I am wrong more often than right.

[fjlip]

You are right, lots of 20bu crops that would be near break even at $13.
Most will collect on crop insurance around here.
But last time we had a short crop the price was shit because nobody came to buy!
Less supply but less demand.

[vvalk]

Hard to put canola in for $260 an acre. $325
I bet is close to average cost with rented
land. Should always pay yourself rent anyways
if you own it outright

[errolanderson]

furrowtickler . . . my apologies. Didn't
mean to offend.

My point which is the 'ugly side' of
markets is that global markets don't
care about the cost of production in
western Canada. That is a sad truth.
Just look our hog industry as an
example.

The Asian slowdown is the key reason for
the washout in canola values right now.
And a recent 30% decline in Asian veg
oil markets can't go unnoticed.

[countryguy]

Asians can quit buying expensive vehicles, stop taking holidays, stop going to the movies, etc. The list goes on and on. The one thing Asians cannot stop doing is eating. And there are more and more of them everyday.

No one in the world wants to give up anything out of their lifestyle to pay more for food hence all the manipulative bullshit that goes on. Analyze BOGUS S&D numbers all you want. That is the way it is.