And the Slaughter continues!

[TOM4CWB]

Dear Charlie,

As always Cost of Production is a good first step to decide where to base our price on. Then we add spec value and probabilities that prices will increase.

This year:
The inverse in the futures values really pushed us/me to price sooner rather than later. A zero basis on July to me is not attractive when the July futures was $15/t below Mar 2013.

What are the chances of getting back to back failures in Soy???

Will there be a squeeze on Canola prices in the spring of 2013?

90 percent chance there will be.

Soooo... what level do they start from...??? How many customers have bought ahead... and are exempt from needing to be a part of that squeeze?

Interesting times ahead!

Cheers!

[charliep]

The market will remain interesting. As most have said here, volatility will be the name of the game and a sign of a healthy market. Signals from things like basis in the case of canola will also warrant watching.

When I was a wet behind behind the ears pup, I made the mistake of complaining about price volatility in a price rally to a mentor. His comment was you mean you like low prices? Low prices go hand in hand with big supplies/low price volatility. Tighter supplies means buys and sellers fight more over the final price - thus more volatility. So I would argue volatility is a good thing. So farmers just have to use it to their advantage with the caveat not everything they do will be a winner on each individual sale.

[charliep]

A new world with the Camrose crushing plant pushing potential domestic crush capacity to over 8 and likely over 8.5 MMT including the improvements in other plants.

A weird comment that the best canola prices have come in the years of large supplies when product was consistently delivered to the market over the entire year and the system was effectively vacuumed clean by sales activities. The worst years were ones with tighter supplies when slow deliveries limited what could be sold and carryovers were larger than expected.

The decision to sell or not sell is an individual manager decision and as has been communicated on Agriville, varies farm to farm. To get me excited about canola, I would like to see something better than 51 cent per pound soybean oil futures.

[gregpet]

Wow, from zero peas to 1300 ac now. Better wait since I'm sure your plans will change a few times from now till spring and we will all hear about it. Oh and how lazy I was for not planting early into mud like you decided to do. Now I reap the rewards of my laziness of my management decision not to plant into mud no matter how late it got.

[farmaholic]

Thinking out loud, thinking out loud opens your thoughts to criticism.

[SASKFARMER3]

That's the point. Why do we need to feed the pigs,
grow a 25 bushel canola crop and let them starve.
Simple. Every time the industry sees us have a
profit they take their share and then some. Look
at iron canola seed, spray, fert etc. all would love
to increase prices by double yet were suppose to
do all the work take all the risks then live on the
scraps.

[TOM4CWB]

SF3,

Your so called 'scraps' are huge wealth... you are better than 99.9 percent of others on this planet!

Take a happy pill and have a good sleep!

By the way... just how much wealth would it take... till you were satisfied and could share your contented feelings with us?

[cottonpicken]

Well,what we need to do now is start thinking like
professional traders.

The only question worth thinking about is-"what is
floor".

I read a quote a long,long time ago from a very old
anonymous trader who said "after a while the
corrections arnt that bad,you get to see the floor
price"

Anybody at the toon town rb auction,any deals on the
semi's?

[Livewire]

Tend to agree with sf3. We farmers have the food
People need 2 eat. Crushers need canola.
Futures fell 6.30 a tonne but adm Lloyd price went
up 4 cents per bus. They need our hurricane and
diseased reduced crop. We have more power
than anyone realizes if we lock the bin doors and
don't give it away. Anything below 15 a bus is a
slap in the face. Time to make up for all the
product we have all sold for a lot less

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom I am content, I like when all farmers get
ahead, farmers should be head of the food chain
instead of bottom feeders. But it's thanks giving
and I am thankfully that I didn't get it all seeded
before the may longweekend, very thankful. Plus
it's drying up oh so nice that were getting acres
back ever day it's dry. Most fields are almost full
quarters again. 2013 is looking great.