Statistic Canada Production Estimate

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/121004/t121004a001-eng.htm"]October Estimate[/URL]

The fight will be about canola - 13.4 MMT.

They took a 900,000 tonnes out of barley from the July early forecast - now 8.6 MMT.

Numbers good bad or indifferent - open for discussion. Not a market factor today although potentially a little bullish.

Will be watch CGC grain statistics weekly and the COPA canola board crush margin.

[SASKFARMER3]

Their still a little high but ah for once
they got it right. For once.
Now with frosts in Australia and the USA
continuing to BS the world on their Soy
and Corn production things might get
interesting. Only wild card is THE WORLD
IT BROKE!

[mbratrud]

I agree Charlie that Canola number is probably a little low, but it does underscore the major drop in Canola production. Even if its 14MMT does it change anything?

[bucket]

Small crops get smaller not larger!

[mbratrud]

Bit of a surprise in Durum and Barley as well.

[bucket]

And with the recent decline in prices demand has not slowed.

Basis have narrowed considerably in the past few days. The production may be less but the crop is going to market faster also.

Could we be out of canola by next may?

Could be, alot of canola didn't fill the bins like it was expected to.

Does statscan report include the reduction due to wind damage?

[SASKFARMER3]

On Barley every one I talk to had a
smaller than normal crop. Durum was also
smaller than normal. HRS did take the
problems of 2012 way better. Late seeded
HRS did awesome!

[crusher]

I like canola's price action the last couple of days. The bull's are back. How bought those bean exports??!!

[furrowtickler]

Huh, pretty close to my 13.5 estimate a while back.

[bucket]

furrow

Are you surprised? Ever since the crop went in I have been quietly wondering where anyone gets a bumper crop from the disasterous start to the year.

Farmers are closer to the reality of the production than statscan, charliep, or errolanderson AND yet the media and others in the trade would rather listen to their nonsense than a farmer like SF3 or yourself who tells it like it is from the field.

[bucket]

BTW here is some simple math I have been telling neighbors since spring.

18 miilion acres X 35 bpa = 630 (2011)

21 million acres X 30 bpa = 630 (2012)


Now throw in a bad start disease etc and you are lower than 2011.

Not bad calculating for a 2 cent calculator with a bad haircut, hey.

[mbratrud]

I Can't wait until we realize in December that we have moved 60% of the canola crop in 40% of the year... Then this spring what is going to happen when we realize that acreage growth for Canola in Western Canada has run its course? If it wasn't so damn dry I would ne excited for next year already!