Statistic Canada Production Estimate

[bucket]

Hey SF3 is pretty excited about next according to him on another thread.

But Canola acreage for 2013 is going down not up.

Guys with shiny new combines this year don't like being told their canola fields are netting them less than an ethanol wheat crop. Less fertilzer and spray costs and more time at the lake.

Big wheat acres for next year. I am sticking with my plan trying to get the rotations back to an easy seed program.

[vvalk]

bucket. what does shiney new combines have to do with anything?

[SASKFARMER3]

Canola will be down in 2013. No doubt.
Durum is the crop for 2013. Funny how HRS
is king this year. HRS hm our useless crop
that was a filler crop is now king.
Hm what a wonderful world.

[bucket]

vvalk

The guys with the shiny new combines were counting on big canola crops to pay for them. Now a couple of guys are saying they overspent. No shit, sherlock, 350 lbs on the canola for a 20 bpa and a new combine. Gotta hurt the pocket book.

[craig]

Good to see they lowered barley. In our area most barley was lower in yield than wheat. Would estimate 2/3 to 3/4 of normal.

[charliep]

mbratrud

Hope everyone reads your post. The only real market information in here. Others can fight about acreage but the real question is what has been sold. Strangely, it will have been in farmers best interest if the trade has forward booked on 15 MMT crop that ends up smaller. They are going to fight to meet their sales programs (oil and meal in the case of domestic crushers or export volumes in the case of grain companies).

Key pieces of information I will be following are the CGC Grain Statistics Weekly and the COPA Canola Board Crush Margin. Basis levels will also tell a story. The final piece in this puzzle is international vegetable oil prices (soybean and palm). Canola can demand a premium in some markets based on quality characturistics (low saturated fats/low transfats) but there is limit in many markets.

[Livewire]

Keep the bins locked yet boys. What the system
needs is a steady flow of product. I'd like to see it
squirm some more. Maybe they will start to
appreciate all the squirming farmers have to go
thru to produce it

[bucket]

charliep

If soybeans start to bounce back that will affect the complex as well??

[errolanderson]

See today's stats can report as bullish
the canola basis, but global veg oil
markets remain in steep decline. Canola
exports are likely to slip into winter
in an attempt to balance reduced supply.
ie: China.

Basis levels will likely be well above
the futures (Jan/Mar) in many locations.
We'll see if the futures bull sizzle can
last to the weekend.

bucket . . . more nonesence from
errolanderson

[fjlip]

vvalk, we also see 3 shiny combines and 3 shiny Macdon's across the fence on the poorest canola of all neighbors. Seeded by shiny 84' Seedhawks and shiny new 9560T.
No worries, that lineup is often seen in full color pictures in auction calendars.

[ado089]

1) I think canola number may even be a
little high yet.
2)The pea number is high!
3)Who cares if the neighbor is running new
machinery every year? Good for them for
making it work and if it doesn't it means
there will be more land for sale/rent and
more, next to new, machinery at auction.
Those are good things in my books, spend
away!

[boarderbloke]

Seems green peas got a little kick in the pants today too! High end offers for #2 greens up another $0.50 today, to $11.75, according to StatPub. Anyone know of a better breakdown on classes, yellows vs. greens vs. others for production &/or total supply available for this year compared to other years?
I'd have to think these are very high offers prior to "crop Production week" where often the best prices can be locked in.
Comments from experienced "Green growers" appreciated, How high can we go??? What alternative will industry turn to for substitution?